Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: Stanford +20.5

Stanford vs. Oregon, 11/17/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 17 - 14

Point Spread: +20½/-110 Stanford

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: Stanford +20.5

The Cardinal improved to 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play with a 27-23 win over then No. 11 Oregon State this past weekend. Stanford is just a couple of plays away from being undefeated, as they lost 13-17 at Washington and 13-20 in overtime at Notre Dame.

While Oregon has made easy work of just about every opponent they have faced this season, I wouldn’t be so quick to count out the Cardinal in this one. The Ducks most impressive win to date is a 62-51 win at USC, but Stanford also can lay claim to a victory over the Trojans. They beat USC 21-14 at home back on Sept. 15.

The contrast in how these two teams beat USC is very interesting. Stanford used a dominant defensive effort to beat the Trojans, as their stop unit allowed just 280 yards of total offense. The Ducks had to outscore the Trojans to secure a win.

The Cardinal come into this game with one of the top ranked defenses in the country. They are 12th in scoring defense (17.2 ppg) and 17th in total defense (320.7 ypg). Most importantly, they lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 58.8 ypg on the ground, behind one of the most dominant front sevens you will find. Oregon’s offense comes into this game with the 3rd ranked rushing offense at 325.1 ypg.

If Stanford can impose their will and keep the Ducks from running all over them, they will be able to stay in this game and potentially pull off the upset. Slowing down the Oregon offense won’t be easy, but I expect the Cardinal to do everything they can to limit their chances. Look for Stanford to try and establish the running game and put together a lot of long drives on offense to keep the Ducks high-powered attack on the sidelines.

This is also a very good team to back on the road in big time games. The Cardinal are 3-1 ATS away from home this season and 16-5-1 ATS over their last 22 overall. They are also 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning road record, while Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. BET THE CARDINAL!