5* BIG 12 BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas State vs. Baylor,
11/17/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 24 - 52
Point Spread: -12/-110 Kansas State
5* BIG 12 BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE WEEK: Kansas State -12
The Wildcats improved to 10-0 overall and 7-0 inside the Big 12 with a 23-10 win at TCU this past weekend. Kansas State will be able to secure at least a share of the Big 12 title and a spot in a BCS Bowl with a win over the Bears. While the Wildcats just keep on winning, it seems like no one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. Kansas State was just a 6.5-point favorite in their 13-point win over the Horned Frogs. They are now 8-1 ATS this season are 6-0-1 ATS against their conference rivals.
It certainly seems like Kansas State is undervalued against Baylor. The Bears are a miserable 1-5 inside the Big 12 with their only win coming against Kansas at home. The Wildcats only two games inside the conference where they haven’t won by more than 12-points came on the road against Oklahoma (24-19) and Iowa State (27-21). Both of those teams have solid defenses that specialize in stopping the ground game, which is something Baylor simply hasn’t been able to do.
In fact, the Bears have one of the worst defenses in the entire country. They are 118th in scoring defense giving up 39.4 ppg and are 122nd in total defense allowing just under 520 total yards/game. They feature a run defense that is giving up an average of 198.7 ypg. With Kansas State’s offense predominantly focused on a rushing attack that is averaging over 213 ypg, you have to believe the Wildcats are going to score at will against this poor excuse of a Baylor defense.
Kansas State’s defense comes into this game holding opponents to an average of 17.7 ppg. The most points they have allowed all season is 30 to Oklahoma State. If the Wildcats can hold Baylor to 30 points or less, you have to like their chances of winning by at least 13 points.
A couple key trends favor the Wildcats to cover the number once again. Kansas State is 11-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams – scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons, while the Bears are just 3-15 ATS over their last 18 home games vs. incredible offensive teams – scoring 37 or more points/game and only 3-13 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992. BET THE WILDCATS!