3* NCAAF Saturday Night SMASH on Stanford +20.5

Stanford vs. Oregon, 11/17/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 17 - 14

Point Spread: +20½/-110 Stanford

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

3* NCAAF Saturday Night SMASH on Stanford +20.5
Stanford has been an excellent investment for quite some time now. It is 36-16-1 against the spread in its last 53 games and 16-6 against the spread since the beginning of last season. It is 16-5-1 against the number in its last 22 road games and 15-5-1 against the spread in its last 21 conference contests.

The Cardinal don’t have the same explosive offense they had with Andrew Luck at the controls, but they have remained elite because of their ferocious defense. They rank 12th in the country in scoring defense with 17.2 points allowed per game and 17th in total defense with 320.7 yards allowed per game.

If any team can slow down Oregon’s explosive running attack it’s Stanford. The Cardinal rank No. 1 in the nation against the run with 58.9 yards allowed per game. They are going to make the Ducks beat them through the air. Keep in mind Oregon is just 2-4 against the spread this season when it attempts 27 passes or more in a game.

Stanford is on a 20-8 against the spread run in road games versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game or more. It is also on a 12-3 against the spread run in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game.

It also bodes well for us that Stanford is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 48.3 to 18.5 in these games.