25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois, 11/14/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 31

Point Spread: +10/-108 Toledo

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.

Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.

The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.

Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.

This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.