15* Kentucky/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -3

Kentucky vs. Duke, 11/13/2012 21:30 EDT, Score: 68 - 75

Point Spread: -3/-105 Duke

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.

Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.

"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."

Duke returns four starters from a team that averaged 77.3 points/game last season. The key to this season's team will be senior forward Mason Plumlee, who chose not to enter the NBA Draft after a season in which he averaged nearly a double-double (11.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG). He is joined in the frontcourt by senior Ryan Kelly, who can stretch defenses as a long-range shooter (41% threes).

The backcourt is led by senior Seth Curry, but with Austin Rivers gone, he has returned to his more natural position off the ball, where he thrives with a better than 40% three-point stroke in his Duke career.

Kentucky barely squeaked by Maryland 72-69 in its opener, and it is an underdog for a good reason here. The Wildcats are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. ACC foes. Take Duke Tuesday.