25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +14.5

Mississippi State vs. LSU, 11/10/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 17 - 37

Point Spread: +14½/-110 Mississippi State

Sportsbook: JustBet

Result: Loss

This is easily the best team that Dan Mullen has fielded since coming to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs did lose badly to Alabama and Texas A&M in their last two games, but that has them battle-tested heading into this showdown against a team similarly talented.

LSU is in a huge letdown spot after losing to No. 1 Alabama in the final seconds last Saturday. It will have a very hard time getting up to play Mississippi State after such a crushing defeat. That loss means that the Tigers aren’t going to have a chance to win a SEC title, thus they have no shot at playing for a national title. A win last week would have changed all of that.

Mississippi State has played LSU tough in recent meetings. Three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or less. There’s no question the talent gap between these teams has closed since Mullen took over at Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs are 21-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Mississippi State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

LSU is 20-36 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. The Tigers are 4-16 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992. LSU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LSU) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet Mississippi State Saturday.