15* Colts/Jaguars NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +4

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville, 11/08/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 27 - 10

Point Spread: +4/-110 Jacksonville

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

The betting public is all over the Colts this week. Not too many public bettors are going to want to put their money down on Jacksonville with how poorly they’ve played in the first half. As a result, oddsmakers are forced to adjust the line. Jacksonville was a 3-point underdog on the road in their first meeting, and now they’re a 3-point dog again at home this time around. That alone shows you that there is value with the home team in this one.

The Jaguars have the Colts’ number in recent meetings. They are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts. Post Peyton Manning, they are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS. Following five straight losses, this team is looking to take out their frustration on the Colts.

Indianapolis is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Colts are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record overall. They have consistently been overvalued against these teams over the last couple of seasons.

The Colts are 9-21 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Indianapolis is 7-18 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow at least 130 rushing yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Jaguars Thursday.