4* Thursday Night Football SMASH on Jaguars +3.5

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville, 11/08/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 27 - 10

Point Spread: +3½/-110 Jacksonville

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

4* Thursday Night Football SMASH on Jaguars +3.5
The Jaguars have covered the spread in two of their last three games so there has been value in taking them recently.

The Colts are just 1-2 straight up and against the spread on the road this season and are fortunate not to be 0-3. They had to come from seven points down in the fourth quarter to defeat the Tennessee Titans in overtime Oct. 28. The Colts have yet to be favored away from home this season so this is new territory for them.

Indianapolis has had little trouble moving the football, but it has had a hard time putting points on the board. It ranks just 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense with 19.9 points per game. As a result, three of its wins have come by three points. It also has a four-point win, and its six point win came in the aforementioned overtime game. In other words, the Colts aren’t blowing anybody out.

The Colts don’t have a dominant defense. They rank 23rd in scoring defense with 23.9 points allowed per game and 18th in total defense with 352.2 yards allowed per game. They have especially struggled against the run, ranking 25th in the league with 130.8 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Jaguars rushed for 185 yards in their 22-17 win in Indianapolis earlier this season. They are now 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in the series.

The Colts are 0-7 ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average score of 23.7 to 20.9 in this situation.

Also, plays against favorites that check in off an upset win at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, are 69-32 ATS since 1983. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.