4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan -11

Northwestern vs. Michigan, 11/10/2012 12:00 EDT, Score: 31 - 38

Point Spread: -11/-110 Michigan

Sportsbook: BETONLINE

Result: Loss

4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan -11
The Wolverines are 4-0 this season at home where they have won by an average of 25.7 points. They are also 4-1 in conference action this season. These four wins have come by an average of 25.0 points. Their only conference defeat came at Nebraska, who also defeated Northwestern in Evanston.

Michigan has had Northwestern’s number. The Wolverines have won six of the past seven meetings. The six wins have come by an average of 18.8 points with each coming by at least 12 points. Michigan won last season’s meeting 42-24 at Northwestern while outgaining the Wildcats by over 100 yards.

Michigan is one of the best defensive teams in the country. It ranks seventh in total defense with 288.7 yards allowed per game and 13th in scoring defense with 16.8 points allowed per game. It leads the entire nation in pass defense, holding opponents to just 145.4 yards per game through the air.

Northwestern’s defense isn’t nearly as good. The Wildcats rank 62nd in total defense with 393.8 yards allowed per game and 36th in scoring defense with 22.3 points allowed per contest. They have especially struggled to defend the pass.

Northwestern ranks 110th in the country against the pass with 271.1 yards allowed per game. It was torched for 362 yards through the air in last season’s loss to the Wolverines. In addition to throwing for a lot of yards, Denard Robinson ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns in last season’s victory. Robinson missed last week but is expected to be ready to go Saturday.

Oddsmakers clearly aren't sold on the 24th-ranked Wildcats based on the line, and I'm not either. They haven't proven they can beat teams through the air, and Michigan is going to make them do just that. Teams headed up by Brady Hoke are 15-5 ATS all-time versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 rushing yards or more per carry.

Also, the Wildcats are just 4-13 ATS all-time under coach Pat Fitzgerald after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. Lay the points.