3* ACC Game of the Week on Florida State -14.5

Florida State vs. Virginia Tech, 11/08/2012 19:30 EDT, Score: 28 - 22

Point Spread: -14½/-110 Florida State

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

3* ACC Game of the Week on Florida State -14.5
The Seminoles are 8-1. Their only blemish is a 17-16 loss at NC State in a game they led 16-0 at the half. That’s how close they are to being right in the middle of the national championship picture.

Florida State’s eight victories have come by an average of 37.0 points and five of them have come by at least 14 points.

The 4-5 Hokies have lost four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. They are only 2-7 ATS this season and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games.

Virginia Tech is also 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 home games, 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests.

The Seminoles are superior on both sides of the football. They lead the nation in total defense with only 227.1 yards allowed per game. They rank third in scoring defense with 12.0 points allowed per contest.

Offensively, the Noles are third in scoring with 44.8 points per game and seventh in total offense with 524.7 yards per game.

Virginia Tech has been an outstanding defensive team historically, but it has dropped off this season. It ranked in the top 10 in both total and scoring defense last year but doesn’t even rank in the top 40 in these categories this year.

It ranks 41st in total defense with 367.9 yards allowed per game and 52nd in scoring defense with 24.7 points allowed per game.

The offense ranks 70th in scoring with 27.1 points per game and 65th in total offense with 401.4 yards per game.

It is also worth noting that the favorite has covered the spread in four of the past five meetings between these two.

Lastly, plays on road teams that that have won three in a row in conference play, provided they have won at least 80% of their games of the season and are matched up against a team with a losing record, are 33-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 16.7 points and have won by an average of 23.6. This system is 5-1 ATS this season. Lay the points.