3* NCAAF SMASH on Ohio -3

Bowling Green vs. Ohio, 11/07/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 26 - 14

Point Spread: -3/-105 Ohio

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* NCAAF SMASH on Ohio -3
The Bobcats are 8-1 on the season and six of their victories have come by at least four points. They are a perfect 5-0 at home where they have won by an average of 21.0 points. Each of their home wins have come by six points or more.

Ohio has taken care of business against good teams. In fact, it is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus teams that have a winning record. Bowling Green, on the other hand, is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus a team with a winning record.

The Falcons have been offensively challenged. They rank 93rd in the country in scoring with 23.0 points per game and 76th in total offense with 383.4 yards per game.

The Falcons have been very dependent on their running game, which averages 169.7 yards per contest. Their dependence on the run could backfire here against an Ohio stop unit that has a solid run defense. The Bobcats rank 38th in the country with only 135.7 rushing yards allowed per game.

I don't believe the Falcons, who rank 83rd in passing offense with 213.8 yards per game, are good enough to beat Ohio through the air.

Ohio likes to run the football too, and it runs it better than Bowling Green. The Bobcats rank 19th in the nation with 220.8 rushing yards per game.

Bowling Green has a good run defense (13th in the nation with 104.2 yards per game allowed), but Ohio has been able to get the job done against such defenses. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Solich in home games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 rushing yards or less per game. The Bobcats have won by an average of 4.3 points in this situation.

The Bobcats have won their last three against the Falcons by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the number.