15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +10.5

Arizona vs. Green Bay, 11/04/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 17 - 31

Point Spread: +10½/-115 Arizona

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. Their stop unit has given up 24 or less points in 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are giving up just 17.7 points per game this season. They rank 6th in the league in total defense, allowing a mere 312.9 yards per game. This stop unit is capable of keeping them in every ball game.

Arizona’s strength defensively is a pass defense that ranks 4th in the league allowing just 192.9 passing yards per game. Green Bay’s strength is a passing offense that ranks 12th in the league at 254.5 yards per game through the air. The Cardinals figure to be able to keep Aaron Rodgers in check.

That’s especially the case considering Rodgers will likely be without his top two receivers for a second straight week. Both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings missed the Jacksonville game last week, and the Packers really struggled to put the Jaguars away, eventually earning an ugly 24-15 home victory. Jennings (groin) is out for sure, while Nelson (hamstring) is doubtful.

This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.

The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.