15* Cowboys/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +4.5

Dallas vs. Atlanta, 11/04/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 13 - 19

Point Spread: +4½/-115 Dallas

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

Dallas is a much better team than its 3-4 record would indicate. One look at the numbers and you can tell that, but the fact of the matter is that this team keeps beating itself. If the Cowboys ever quit beating themselves, they are going to be a very scary team in the second half. They committed six turnovers against the Giants last week and still had a chance to win at the end.

The Cowboys rank 7th in the league in total offense at 383.3 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 292.4 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by roughly 91 yards per game on the season, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 5-2 or better rather than one that is 3-4.

To compare, the Falcons are only outgaining opponents by a mere 12.4 yards per game this season. That number is more indicative of a team that is 4-3 rather than one that is 7-0. You could certainly make the argument that the Cowboys are the better team with those numbers, and there’s no question they are undervalued. The Falcons probably overvalued heading into this one if anything.

Dallas simply needs this win more if it wants to make the playoffs. Atlanta can afford a loss considering out atrocious the NFC South has been this season. It has pretty much already locked up the division and we're not even halfway through the year. I look for the Cowboys to be the more motivated team coming in and to be giving a better effort on the field because of it.

Atlanta is 0-6 against the spread after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 11.7 points per game. The Falcons are 0-6 against the spread after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Jason Garrett is 6-0 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas. He has never lost ATS in this situation. Take the Cowboys Sunday.