25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

Pittsburgh vs. NY Giants, 11/04/2012 16:15 EDT, Score: 24 - 20

Point Spread: +3½/-120 Pittsburgh

Sportsbook: Intertops

Result: Win

While the Steelers do have three losses on the season, they really gave those games away. They held fourth quarter leads against the Broncos, Titans and Raiders and managed to let them slip away. Pittsburgh is really looking for a statement win, and it will be highly motivated when it goes into New York Sunday against the defending champs.

Pittsburgh may be a bit banged up, but it is playing its best football of the season right now. After a 24-17 road win at Cincinnati in Week 7, the Steelers came back with a 27-12 home victory over the Washington Redskins in arguably their most complete game of the season last Sunday. They limited Robert Griffin III and Washington’s high-powered offense to just 255 total yards.

In fact, the Steelers may be playing as well as they ever have on defense this season even without Polamalu, which is certainly saying something. Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the league in total defense (274.1 yards/game). Meanwhile, the Giants are hemorrhaging yards, ranking 24th in the league in total defense (386.5 yards/game).

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s 10th ranked offense (369.9 yards/game) should have its way with New York’s stop unit. The Giants are giving up 27.0 points per game at home this year. New York has won its last two games against Washington and Dallas by a combined 9 points. The Cowboys and Redskins combined for 10 turnovers in those two games, and the Giants still nearly lost each. Pittsburgh won't be giving New York any gifts in this one.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home teams (NY GIANTS) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with