15* Falcons/Eagles NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia -1

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia, 10/28/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 30 - 17

Point Spread: -1/-135 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

This is a more important game for the Philadelphia Eagles than it is for the Atlanta Falcons as both teams are coming in off a bye. Atlanta is 6-0 on the season and not as good as its record, while Philly is 3-3 and better than its record in my opinion. The Eagles cannot afford to drop to 3-4, while the Falcons can afford a loss.

Andy Reid always works his magic on bye weeks with his players. He is the best head coach in the business during a bye week. That's evident by the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 13-0 when coming off a bye under Reid.

The switch to a new defensive coordinator could not have come at a better time. I look for the Eagles to come up with more big plays and more sacks with their new, more aggressive style. They have been pretty good on this side of the ball anyways, ranking 11th in the league in total defense (330.8 yards/game). They are also 7th in total offense (379.2 yards/game) and haven't reached their potential on that side of the ball.

Atlanta should have lost two of its last three games to the Carolina Panthers and Oakland Raiders. Matt Ryan overcame three interceptions and set up Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal as time expired to give his team a 30-28 home victory over Carolina on 9/30. The Falcons were outgained 357-449 in a 23-20 home victory over the Oakland Raiders on 10/14 that also ended in a Bryant game-winning field goal. Their luck runs out Sunday.

Philly should have won in Atlanta last season, but it lost 35-31. It was outgained 14-0 in the fourth quarter after Michael Vick went out in the third period with a rib injury. The Eagles outgained the Falcons 447-318 for the game and clearly outplayed them despite losing. At home this time around, I look for the Eagles to get their revenge and dominate on the field and on the scoreboard.

This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. Philly is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Atlanta, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.