20* Saints/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7
New Orleans vs. Denver,
10/28/2012 20:20 EDT,
Score: 14 - 34
Point Spread: +7/-140 New Orleans
The New Orleans Saints are undervalued at this point in the season because of their 2-4 start. This team has rebounded nicely with two straight wins, and I like them to carry that momentum into Denver Sunday night. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't getting treated like it because of their slow start, which has them under the radar.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye and they are way overvalued because of it. This is a quality team and one that I picked to win the AFC West, but they have no business being this heavily favored against the Saints. I would actually make New Orleans a favorite on a neutral field, so I believe it is a stronger team despite its record. All four of its losses have come by 8 points or less.
The Saints have not missed a beat offensively this season, and with Drew Brees and company this isn't a team that is going to lose by a touchdown or more very often. They can always come back from any deficit, just like they did against the Bucs last week. They were down 7-21 and scored 28 unanswered points, eventually winning 35-28. They are scoring 29.3 points/game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total offense (411.3 yards/game).
New Orleans is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 17.0 points/game. The The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The Saints are 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. These five trends combine for a 39-3 (93%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Saints Sunday.