5* Big East Game of the Year
Cincinnati vs. Louisville,
10/26/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 31 - 34
Point Spread: +3½/-109 Cincinnati
5* Big East Game of the Year: Cincinnati +3.5
It's going to be hard for the public to back Cincinnati after watching them lose outright to Toledo last week, which put an end to their perfect 5-0 start. Not only do I think the Bearcats are showing a ton a value at +3.5, but I really like their chances of winning this game outright.
That Toledo game was a very difficult spot for Cincinnati, whose primary focus is on winning the Big East and playing in a BCS Bowl. There's a very good chance they were looking ahead to this game, as they know a win over Louisville greatly increases their chances of reaching those goals. Even though it was an instate rivalry game, I strongly believe Toledo was the more motivated team in that one.
Louisville is a perfect 7-0 on the season, but they have had their work cut out for them in each of their last five games. Four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less and their biggest win was a 10-point victory over Pitt, who Cincinnati crushed 34-10 earlier this season. The Cardinal are duo for a loss, and Cincinnati is clearly one of their toughest opponents so far this season.
Adding even more value to this play is the fact that Cincinnati beat Louisville 25-16 a year ago. Plus, the Bearcats are 33-12 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992! BET CINCINNATI!