Thur. NFL

Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota, 10/25/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 36 - 17

Total: -110/+43 Under

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

UNDER 42.5 - 43 Tampa / Minny



Perfect line movement, as this line dropped to 41 or 41.5 and now has climbed back up a full point. 43 is a key number and it may climb up to that, but in any event I like this one to be a low scoring affair. The strength of both teams is Defense, and Minnys defense has only allowed 1 opponent all year over 23 points. With Jared Allen and friends rushing the passer, look for erratic but talented QB Freeman for Tampa to make some mistakes and take some sacks, and Tampa’s offense in general is average at best and against a good defense will struggle. QB Ponder is banged up but will be immobile with a bum ankle. The Minny running game is solid with Petersen, but Tampa’s run defense is rock solid allowing just 3.3 ypc and just 76 yards a game on the ground. Tampa’s defense has shut down some very talented QB’s this year including Drew Brees. Look for Minny to pound it and try and set up play action to Harvin, a clock eating approach. Low scoring 17-3 type game, maybe 20-17. My power rating has it at 38.



Play 1 Unit on the Under.