5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Baylor +3

Baylor vs. Iowa State, 10/27/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 21 - 35

Point Spread: +3/-120 Baylor

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Baylor +3
Motivated by three consecutive defeats, expect Baylor to take out its frustrations on an Iowa State squad it destroyed 49-26 last season.

Iowa State is 1-3 in Big 12 play but could easily be 0-4 if TCU hadn't handed it the football five times. The Cyclones were outgained 455-350 in that game. In fact, they've been outgained by over 100 yards in each of their Big 12 contests. They were outgained 625-341 in last week's 31-10 loss at Oklahoma State.

Baylor is 0-3 in Big 12 play but two of those losses came by 7 points or less at West Virginia and Texas. The other loss came to TCU in a game in which it had 6 turnovers. I'm throwing that one out because the Bears haven't had more than two turnovers in any other game this season. Baylor put up 700 yards of offense against West Virginia and 607 yards of offense against Texas.

The Bears rank 3rd in the nation in both scoring and total offense with 48.0 points and 574.2 yards per game. They are No. 1 in passing offense with 390.7 yards per game.

Iowa State, on the other hand, ranks 103rd in total offense with 342.6 yards per game and 91st in scoring with 23.6 points per game. And, it has been more turnover prone than Baylor.

The Cyclones played about as well as they could in home losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State but came up short because they didn't have enough offense. This trend will continue here.

Kansas State did the Cyclones a favor by keeping the ball on the ground. Baylor won't.

The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Iowa State. Cyclones are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Baylor wins this one outright.