5* SUN BELT NO DOUBT ATS SMASH

Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, 10/23/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 50 - 27

Point Spread: -4½/-105 Louisiana-Lafayette

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* SUN BELT NO DOUBT ATS SMASH: Louisiana-Lafayette -4

Even thought I got burnt by LA-Lafayette last week on Tuesday against North Texas, I believe they are showing a ton of value as a small home favorite. The Ragin' Cajuns have been a great team to back coming off a loss. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss!

I'm not buying into Lafayette's loss to North Texas that much. They were without their top running back due to an illness and lost two of their key playmakers at wide receiver. As a result the Ragin' Cajuns had to settle for a lot of long passes as they weren't able to establish the ground game. They finished with just 106 yards on 19 attempts and 84 of those yards came from their starting quarterback Terrence Broadway.

I fully expect Lafayette to be able to run the ball out of the backfield against a suspect Arkansas St run defense. While the Red Wolves defensive numbers against the run are a bit inflated from having to play two games against Oregon and Nebraska, they still allowed Western Kentucky to run for 243 yards, Florida International put up 188, and South Alabama managed 132.

Both of these two teams have played FIU. Arkansas State beat the Golden Panthers 34-20, while Lafayette won 48-20. If you look closer, you will see that the Red Wolves went into the 4th quarter leading just 27-13, while Arkansas State built a 41-14 lead early in the 3rd quarter.

Adding to my belief that the Ragin' Cajuns are the better team and should win this game by double-digits, is the fact that Arkansas State is just 3-20 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The average score in those games have been Red Wolves 17 - Opponent 33! BET THE RAGIN CAJUN'S!