20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. North Texas,
10/16/2012 21:00 EDT,
Score: 23 - 30
Point Spread: -3½/-115 Louisiana-Lafayette
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They are one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt for good reason, and they're off to a great start in doing so this season.
Lafayette is 4-1 on the season, including 2-0 in Sun Belt play with a 48-20 home win over Florida International, and a 37-24 road win at Troy. Its only loss came on the road against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and its four wins have all come by double-digits.
North Texas is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic. The Mean Green also played Troy, losing at home to the Trojans 7-14. So that's a common opponent between these teams. Lafayette won by 13 at Troy, while North Texas lost by 7 to Troy at home. That games shows how much better the Rajin' Cajuns are than the Mean Green.
Lafayette beat North Texas 30-10 at home last season. With 13 starters back from that team, including nine on offense, I like they chances of pulling off a similar blowout again in 2012. Lafayette has now won five straight meetings in this series.
Lafayette ranks 39th in the country in rushing offense (190.4 yards/game) and 19th in run defense (107.2 yards/game). That makes this an excellent match-up for them because North Texas' strength is their rushing offense (175.2 yards/game), which ranks 50th. Their weakness is a run defense (176.5 yards/game) that ranks 78th. Lafayette's biggest weakness is their pass defense, but the Mean Green only rank 85th in passing offense (206.7 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against a home team (NORTH TEXAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Mean Green are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Louisiana-Lafayette is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Lafayette is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Rajin' Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Lafayette is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system that has not lost in three years. Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.