3* NCAAF SMASH (ESPN2) on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. North Texas, 10/16/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 23 - 30

Point Spread: -3½/-115 Louisiana-Lafayette

Sportsbook: BETONLINE

Result: Loss

3* NCAAF SMASH (ESPN2) on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
Louisiana-Lafayette has won 5 in a row against North Texas by an average of 12.6 points, and I expect it to continue its dominance in the series tonight.

The Ragin' Cajuns have been an awesome investment on the road where they are on a 13-3 ATS run. They are on an 8-1 ATS run on the road against conference opponents.

The fact ULL failed to cover the spread in its last game bodes extremely well for us. That's because it is 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. It is also 9-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive overs the last 3 seasons (stat excludes pushes).

In addition, plays against a home team that allowed 37 points or more in its last game, provided it is matched up against an opponent that has led its last 2 games by 14 points or more at the half, are 27-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points.

North Texas is extremely reliant on its running game, but it will find rushing yards hard to come by against a defense that has held 4 of its 5 opponents to 60 rushing yards or less.

The Ragin' Cajuns have struggled against the pass, but the Mean Green don't have the passing game to take advantage. We'll lay the points.