15* Pats/Seahawks NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -3
New England vs. Seattle,
10/14/2012 16:05 EDT,
Score: 23 - 24
Point Spread: -3/-125 New England
The Seattle Seahawks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers Sunday against one of the best teams in the league. Seattle is 2-0 at home this season, but they should really be 1-1 as they lost to the Green Bay Packers 7-12 but got bailed out by a fluke call from the replacement officials on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
Seattle gets put in its place Sunday against a superior team in the New England Patriots. New England is somewhat under the radar due to their 1-2 start that featured two losses by a combined three points. It has responded nicely since, thumping Buffalo on the road 52-28, then topping Denver 31-21 at home last week.
Quietly, the Patriots have gone a very profitable 4-1 ATS as they just continue to cover spreads at an alarming rate. Those two early losses have this team undervalued right now because I believe they are every bit as good as they were a year ago when they made the Super Bowl, and maybe even better despite the record.
The Patriots are as explosive as ever offensively as they rank 1st in the league in total offense (439.4 yards/game) while scoring 33.0 points/game. What's most impressive is that they have found a running game to compliment Brady. New England ranks 3rd in the league in rushing (165.4 yards/game). The stop unit is improved as well as it ranks 19th in total defense (374.4 yards/game) while giving up a respectable 22.6 points/game.
Seattle is not as good as its 3-2 record. The defense is legit, but the offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Tom Brady and company. The Seahawks rank just 27th in the league in total offense (287.2 yards/game) while scoring a mere 17.2 points/game. I look for the Patriots to go no-huddle offensively, which will cause confusion and lead to success against Seattle's defense.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
The Patriots are 24-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992. New England is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 road games. The Seahawks are 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot 38.0 to 15.0, or by an average of 23.0 points/game. New England is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons, winning 38.0 to 23.1 in this spot, or by an average of 14.9 points/game. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.