20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -4
St. Louis vs. Miami,
10/14/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 14 - 17
Point Spread: -4/-105 Miami
The Miami Dolphins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this year. They are just 2-3 on the season, but they could easily be 4-1 right now. They have two overtime losses to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals in games they really should have won. Their other loss came to the 5-0 Houston Texans in a game that was tied 3-3 until three turnovers over the final two minutes of the first half turned into 21 Houston points.
I just really like what I see from this Miami team on both sides of the ball. They rank 13th in the league in total offense (373.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 135.6 yards/game on the ground and 237.8 yards/game through the air. Ryan Tannehill is the real deal and the QB of the future for this team.
Miami also ranks a respectable 14th in total defense (343.2 yards/game), including 1st against the run (61.4 yards/game). Their weakness is against the pass, but the St. Louis Rams do not have a good passing attack. St. Louis ranks 29th in total offense (278.2 yards/game), including 30th in passing offense (183.4 yards/game).
The Rams are simply overvalued at this point of the season after their 3-2 start. They are getting outgained by 57.2 yards/game this season, which is the sign of a 2-3 or 1-4 team rather than one with a winning record.
St. Louis is now without Danny Amendola to a collarbone injury, which is huge considering he's by far Sam Bradford's favorite target. Amendola has 32 receptions for 395 yards this season, and the No. 2 option is Brandon Gibson with only 13 receptions for 184 yards through five games. Bradford is going to miss Amendola greatly.
The Rams are 0-2 on the road this season as all of their wins have come at home. They are getting outscored 14.5 to 25.0 on the road, or by an average of 10.5 points/game to the likes of Detroit and Chicago.
This play falls into a system that is 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against any team (ST LOUIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season.
The Dolphins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. in its last 9 a team with a winning record. Take the Dolphins Sunday.