10* Oddsmaker Mistake Play

Western Kentucky vs. Troy, 10/11/2012 19:30 EDT, Score: 31 - 26

Point Spread: +2½/-110 Troy

Sportsbook: JustBet

Result: Loss

I like the Troy Trojans plus the small number at home vs. Western Kentucky. I believe the wrong team is favored. The Trojans are 8-1-1 all-time versus Western Kentucky including a 4-0-1 mark at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
This one should be extra fun because it pits two strengths against each other... Troy's passing attack vs. W. Kentucky's pass defense and (more importantly) pass rush. Quanterus Smith is an absolute beast at defensive end. He leads the nation averaging 1.62 sacks per game. Conversely, Troy’s offensive line ranks 15th in the NCAA having allowed just four sacks on the season.

Troy is undervalued here. They’re a quality Sun Belt team that averages close to 500 yards of offense per game. The Trojans are 3-2 on the year but all three wins have come on the road, which confirms just how tough they can be. Looking for its first home win, the Trojans are 8-1 against the number in their past nine games after a bye and we’ll gladly play them here against a truly overhyped WKU squad.