3* MLB Playoff SMASH on Giants -146

Cincinnati vs. San Francisco, 10/07/2012 21:37 EDT, Score: 9 - 0

Money Line: -146 San Francisco

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* MLB Playoff SMASH on Giants -146
Cincy's Arroyo can't be trusted tonight. Fading him in San Francisco has never lost. He is 0-6 on the money in 6 career starts in San Francisco.

The Reds are 0-4 in Arroyo's last 4 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts against a club with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arroyo has a bloated 6.08 ERA in three postseason starts.

San Francisco's Bumgarner, meanwhile, has never lost in the postseason. He's 2-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.18 in 4 career starts. I fully expect his postseason success to continue at home, where these Giants have won 20 of his last 26 starts.

It also bodes well for us that he hasn't pitched since Sept. 29. That's because the Giants are 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 7 or more days' rest. Take San Francisco.