5* Rose Bowl *BEST BET*
Wisconsin vs. Oregon,
01/02/2012 17:00 EDT,
Score: 38 - 45
Point Spread: +6/-115 Wisconsin
5* Rose Bowl *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Wisconsin +6
A mediocre Auburn defense was able to stifle Oregon's high-powered offense in last year's BCS title game. With plenty of time to prepare, I expect a very good Wisconsin defense, which ranks 8th nationally with 293.0 yards allowed per game, to slow down the Ducks as well.
Wisconsin has been deadly when getting extra time to prepare. In fact, the Badgers are 6-0 ATS when playing following 2 weeks or more off over the last 3 seasons.
I believe Wisconsin will be able to force its will with its power running game against an Oregon defense that ranks 63rd in the country with 382.2 yards allowed per contest.
Teams with quick-strike offenses have struggled against Wisconsin, mostly because the Badgers disrupt rhythm with long, clock-eating drives. Under Bielema, Wiscy is 8-1 ATS vs. poor ball control teams with 28 or less possession minutes/game.
In addition, the Badgers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten. Take the points.