5* NFL Game of the Month on Dolphins +6.5

Miami vs. Arizona, 09/30/2012 16:05 EDT, Score: 21 - 24

Point Spread: +6½/-110 Miami

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

5* NFL Game of the Month on Dolphins +6.5
I'm not sold on Arizona. The Cardinals are 3-0 but have been outgained in each of their games. They have the second-worst offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game. With this in mind, they are clearly being overvalued.

The Cards have gone from being an underdog of at least 3.0 points in each of their first three games to being favored by more than a touchdown at the time I locked in my wager. This big of a line shift might be warranted had they been dominant in their victories. The fact they were outgained in each, and the fact two of the wins came by a total of six points, proves they were not.

Arizona's defense has been good, but it has shown some vulnerability against the run. That vulnerability will be on display Sunday as Miami brings its 4th-ranked rushing offense to town (175.7 yards per game). The Dolphins ran all over the Raiders in a blowout win and then gashed the Jets in an overtime loss. I'm just not convinced the Cardinals are that much better, if at all, than Oakland and New York.

The Dolphins are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record. They are are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning home record. It is also worth noting that plays against favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record on the season are 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.