Tony George

Kansas +1.5 to 2

I saw this game last time out in person as KU destroyed Baylor in Lawrence. There is no doubt KU has struggled opn the road, losing at Mizzou this past weekend when they allowed an 11-0 run against them to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Very unlike a Bill Self coached team. Baylor is good but has struggled against good teams, Mizzou beat them up in Waco, and I see no reason why Kansas cannot win here. KU having back to back losses is very rare. Expect KU’s best effort here tonight big time. Wrong team favored. KU beat them by 18 and it was not even that close in the last game, and Baylor getting a taste of what it is like to carry a high ranking and vie for a Big 12 title for the first time, and this is familiar territory for KU. Baylor only 7-19 ATS their last 26 Big 12 Games.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

Missouri State -4

Love MSU in this one against Southern Illinois. Mizzou St has been inconsistent all year but by far have the better team, more offense and the best player on the floor in this one, a must win game for them. Interesting that MSU has the same record on the road they do at home. They already beat up the Salukies by 12 at home, I think they get close to a double digit win here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri State

Duke / NC UNDER 157.5

The only way Duke stays in this is to step up and play defense, which they have not lately, but rest assured FOCUS will be present here. NC banged up with some injuries coming in here as a big fav. Duke can compete and close the gap here on that and while I am not seeing tons of value in the side play, this Totals play is too high as I see neither team getting near 80 points in this one. NC plays it close to the vest against good teams to control the game, that has always been Roy Williams style, and they are a perfect 6-0 on the under their last 6 games against teams with a winning record and Duke has went 7-3 on Unders their last 10 roadies.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Toledo +5

Love Toledo in this spot tonight. Playing with 4 time revenge in this series and off back to back losses, oddsmakers gave us a great line in this one tonight and I am all over it. Buffalo has a solid ball club, but like many mid major conferences, good teams struggle on the road and the Bul;ls have dropped 4 out of 6 on the road, many of those to lesser teams than Toledo.

Play 2 Units on Toledo

Mizzou -2.5 to 3 max

This is HUGE game for both teams, but this is the last time Mizzou will play KU, a bitter and heated border war, in conference action as Mizzou heads to the SEC next season. the last time in Columbia and the "Zoo" weill be packed to the rafters and rocking. If Mizzou can play perimeter defense, which they can, they can win this despite having issues in rebounding. This is going to be a barnburner and Mizzou is stoked. KU has not fared well away from home against decent teams as evidenced but a loss to Iowa State last week as a 6 point fav. Home court worth 4 points here minimum..lay it

Play 1 Unit on Missouri

Wichita State / Indiana State OVER 132

The Shockers score damn near 80 ppg at home and Indiana State can put up some points here. This total is 8 points off on my power rating on the overl;ay. That is a big number and I will willing to lay it here. Over is 9-2 in the last 11 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Denver Nuggets +6

I will take the points here with Denver tonight. An impresive win on Thursday against the Clippers (I had them) and I like their chances against Portland as they are playing with double revenge here and Portland looked lackluster in a bad road loss at lowly Sacramento in their last game. Too many points here. I understand Portland is a beast at home, but 6 points in the NBA, especially against a good team is a huge number to lay.

Take the Points here. Up to 6.5 in some places

NY Giants +3



Shooting myself for not putting this out at +3 or 3.5 when it opened up , over a fall number. You COULD buy this line to +3 if you want to but now at about half the books as of Monday before the Super Bowl it is back up to +3 at about 50% of the books. SHOP IT! Stats and ect do not matter this time of season in terms of capping the Super Bowl in its truest form. The Giants DEFENSE is the key. I have seen good defensive schemes from teams far less talented than the Giants slow the Patriots all year in big games. I mean Kansas City gave them a game for 3 quarters on Monday Night Football in Boston with Tyler Palko at QB. With Tom Brady’s #1 weapon at Tight End is questionable and not near 100%, even with shots in his ankle before the game, their offense is slowed but still will move the chains.



The Giants defense is better than their yearlong stats as advertised and their defense has got them to this point with a efficient offense led by Manning. So you add up a better running game, a QB that may not be as good as Brady, but damn near it, and the better defense overall. While I think BOTH defenses will struggle and allow points, I also think the Giants are better. Tom Coughlin a great coach, as is Belichick so it is a wash there. I have a slight hesitation based on double revenge from losing a Super Bowl to the Giants and losing at home in the regular season for the Pats. But revenge is out the window once the game starts on a neutral site. The other thing that stands out is the fact New England got outplayed at home by Baltimore. They got the game handed to them, while NY went out a took the win from San Fran. New England has not been impressive down the stretch and NY has, plain and simple. Manning is kool in the pocket and should benefit from extra time to throw it to Nicks and Cruz and Manningham, and those weapons along with a 1-2 punch at RB make them a tough beat for the Pats. At day’s end the key is the makeshift secondary of the Pats is not going to be able to handle the Giants receivers with consistency.



Play 1/2 Unit on the Giants



OVER 55 – MY PREMIUM PLAY of Super the Bowl – The Total



As stated above, while the Giants defense is better, at day’s end I do not think either team will shut down the other one and they will end up trading points. I liked the under here for quite some time since this opening line, but it has dropped and I can see a 31-28 type game here after looking at this game 100 different ways and weighing my experience of 21 years and the different scenarios that are present here.. Belichick has stated publically it is about who has more points and points on the scoreboard negate his defense and their woes so the Pats will come out firing and open it up, and NY will no doubt be able to score against the secondary of the Pats. Lots of passing versus lots of running also eats less clock. I expect a shootout, indoors, fast track, no wind or weather to contend with.



Play 1 Unit on the OVER – The Premium Play



Same Game 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease NY to +9 and Tease the Total down to 49 and take the OVER. Play 1 Unit





Prop Bets (moneyline plays) Odds used from Just Bet or BoDog



Danny Woodehead - New England - Over 10.5 Yards reiceving (-115)



Victor Cruz - NY - OVER 5.5 receptions -150 (TOP PLAY on Props)



More Passing Attempts - Tom Brady - New England (-115)



NY Giants record more rushing yards (-115)



Thanks for a great NFL Season overall and see you next year. Enjoy the game and lets get it done and make some money. I appreciate all your business this past season in the NFL.

Mizzou -5

I usually hesitate when a team is off a huge win and have a game 2 days later, and also have a big game on deck. This fits Mizzou's situation tonight, but they are so well coached, I have no fear of laying a road number against an Oklahoma team they aboslutley DESTROYED last month in Columbia. Mizzou players asked the fans not to rush the court on Saturday nights big win over hated rival Kansas, because of the factt they felt it was not an upset and they were suppose to win the game. That is confidence and disipline. Mizzou beat the stuffing out of the Sooners 87-49 last month, and clearly are the better team, and ranked in the Top 4 in the nation. They have won road games at Iowa State and Baylor (far better teams) and while their road ATS numbers are horrible, bear in mind that was with another coach. Mizzou is a bad matchup for OU who does not defend the perimeter well. anmd while payback is in mind, OU does not have the horses here. A MUST WIN road game for Mizzou, as Big 12 road wins do not come easy. Mizzou 11-2 ATS the last 13 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on Mizzou

BONUS PLAY: Play Texas AM +2.5 for a half unit against Texas. Texas AM has been shooting lights out their last 5, Texas struggles from 3 point range and Texas AM playing with 4 time revenge in their last Big 12 meeting at home with hated rival Texas as they leave for the SEC, they will be ready big time here.

Iowa State +2
’
Yes Okie State beat Missouri in here, but have no illusions Iowa State is the third best team in the Big 12 and oddsmakers are giving them little respect and have overvalued a young Okie State who is totally inconsistent and very undisipolined. Bear in mind also this is an Iowa State who has beaten more than one ranked opponent including Kansas. Iowa State undervalued and should win by 6.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

Creighton -5.5 (Line opened at 3.5) @ Evansville

The Blue Jays own Evansville, 6-0 the last 6 SU and by far are the better team here. Creighton is a cover machine for those not paying attention, 21-9 ATS their last 30 games, unreal! They are also a legit Top 20 Team, and Doug McDermott (coaches son) is one of the top 10 players in the nation.

Evansville is no slouch either at 11-3 ATSD their last 11. The KEY here is the fact Creighton is coming off a road loss at Northern Iowa and will want to get back in the winners circle here tonight and their backcourt is far superior here. The Purple Aces playing some decent ball even though they have a losing record Creighton beat them by 6 at home already in a game where Evansville shot 58% from the floor. The Aces have dropped 3 out of their last 4 including a 9 point home loss to Indiana State in OT. Creighton on the war path tonight, look for a big win here with a focused team.

Half Unit on Creighton

Auburn +5

The Tigers are 12-1 at home this year and are playing their rival. Alabama suspended Mitchell yesterday for this game, a starter who puts in 13 ppg and about 8 board. Coming in here shorthanded on the road laying a number in conference action against a bitter rival is a bad spot. I will take the point. Auburn is a hot ATS going 7-1 their last 8.

Play 1 Unit on Auburn.

Golden State +2.5

Like to go against teams off an OT game the night before, and OK City beat Portland in OT last night. This is their 5th road game on this road swing and deep into a long road trip I like to go against teams who are traveling and off a game the night before, once they get 4 or 5 games into the travel schedule. Head Coach Mark Jackson benched all his starters in their last game, a loss to the Kings for lack of effort, the second time this season he has done that. Since GS has not played since Saturday Night I expect an full out effort and some fresh legs here to pull off the upset as a live dog. Bear in mind the Warriors have beaten Miami, Chicago and Portland at home this year,.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Kansas +1.5 to 2

I saw this game last time out in person as KU destroyed Baylor in Lawrence. There is no doubt KU has struggled opn the road, losing at Mizzou this past weekend when they allowed an 11-0 run against them to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Very unlike a Bill Self coached team. Baylor is good but has struggled against good teams, Mizzou beat them up in Waco, and I see no reason why Kansas cannot win here. KU having back to back losses is very rare. Expect KU’s best effort here tonight big time. Wrong team favored. KU beat them by 18 and it was not even that close in the last game, and Baylor getting a taste of what it is like to carry a high ranking and vie for a Big 12 title for the first time, and this is familiar territory for KU. Baylor only 7-19 ATS their last 26 Big 12 Games.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

Missouri State -4

Love MSU in this one against Southern Illinois. Mizzou St has been inconsistent all year but by far have the better team, more offense and the best player on the floor in this one, a must win game for them. Interesting that MSU has the same record on the road they do at home. They already beat up the Salukies by 12 at home, I think they get close to a double digit win here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri State

Duke / NC UNDER 157.5

The only way Duke stays in this is to step up and play defense, which they have not lately, but rest assured FOCUS will be present here. NC banged up with some injuries coming in here as a big fav. Duke can compete and close the gap here on that and while I am not seeing tons of value in the side play, this Totals play is too high as I see neither team getting near 80 points in this one. NC plays it close to the vest against good teams to control the game, that has always been Roy Williams style, and they are a perfect 6-0 on the under their last 6 games against teams with a winning record and Duke has went 7-3 on Unders their last 10 roadies.

Play 1 Unit on the Under