Thanksgiving Day NFL Free Pick: New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions

The Pats have been all over the place this year, as they have really played to the level of their opponents. They took down the NFL betting lines against some great teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers this year, but they also lost to the Cleveland Browns and darn near were defeated by the Buffalo Bills at home. The defense has been a major problem on the campaign, as this unit has allowed the third most yards in the league at just under 400 per game. The offense doesn’t have these outrageous numbers, as there probably won’t be a single receiver or running back get to 1,000 yards on the year, while QB Tom Brady isn’t even at 2,400 through four games and won’t touch the 4,000 yard barrier. However, points are hitting the scoreboard, and that’s all that HC Bill Belichick really cares about, as 28.9 points per game is the top mark in the NFL coming into this Thanksgiving Day weekend. Keep an eye on RB Fred Taylor in this one, as if he suits, the running game will get a huge boost. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and RB Danny Woodhead have done their jobs, as Taylor has been out of the lineup for the last two months, but his return would be very welcome.

Detroit was a frisky team for the first half of this season, but the second half has been as dismal as could be. The Lions are in a position right now where they are failing to cover spreads left and right due to the fact that they are just a beat up team that can’t take much more in the way of losing. QB Shaun Hill has already been forced to start eight games this year in place of the injured QB Matt Stafford, and though Hill might have been the most starter ready backup in the entire NFL this year, he still doesn’t have anywhere near the talent as the former No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Now to make matters worse, the team’s only viable running option, RB Jahvid Best, also a first round draft pick, is out of the lineup with turf toe. This is likely to be a running back by committee approach, though HC Jim Schwartz knows that he doesn’t have any reasonable backs that can step up and rush for 100 yards on the New England defense.

These two teams are polar opposites right now, and though you might be tempted to take Detroit after watching the Pats blow it against the Browns earlier this year, don’t let this cloud your judgment. Remember that the Lions play really good teams seemingly every Thanksgiving at home, just as they did eight years ago when the Brady Bunch came to town. Since ’04, the Lions are 0-6 SU and ATS on Turkey Day. Brady and company will make that worse on Thursday.