Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: NFL Free Picks

RB Chris Johnson is on pace to run the ball over 360 times this year, a number which really might catch up with him later in the season. However, the young man out of East Carolina is still absolutely one of the best backs in the NFL. He has 485 rushing yards and six TDs this season, including three 100+ yard games. This seems to pale in comparison to the 11 straight 100+ yard games he had last season in his 2,006 yard year, but things are a lot easier to sort out in Tennessee games in 2010. When Johnson runs for 100+ yards, the Titans win and cover. When he doesn’t, they don’t. QB Vince Young has already been benched once this season, but he is still going to be the man that is responsible for winning this huge game for the visitors. He has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for just 684 yards with six scores and two picks, and he has rumbled for 88 yards on the ground. Needless to say, the defense is going to be licking its chops to get after the quarterback in this one, as the Titans accounted for six sacks last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Bookends DE Jason Babin and DE Dave Ball have combined for ten sacks in just five games this year.

The Jags are going to be in a world of hurt if they can’t take some of the pressure off of QB David Garrard in this one. Garrard has already thrown six picks this year, and at times, he really struggles trying to hold on to the pigskin. To make matters worse, he really doesn’t have a consistent, reliable target to try to throw to, as this team hasn’t a had a truly great receiver since the days of Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. Jacksonville will need to be very careful about its rush defense this week, as it hasn’t seen a back of anywhere near the quality of Johnson on the season. This unit is suspect against the pass, but we must remember that QB Peyton Manning, QB Kyle Orton, and QB Philip Rivers have already taken shots at this ‘D’ this season. Don’t be shocked if RB Maurice Jones-Drew is called upon at least 30 times in this game. He might only be averaging 4.0 yards per carry this year, but Jones-Drew is the best offensive weapon that HC Jack Del Rio has at his disposal.

If you can’t throw the ball on the Titans and become one dimensional, you’re probably going to lose. This secondary is the weakness of the team, and it isn’t going to be exploited by Garrard and company. The NFL picks in this game are easy to make. Back the visitors.