Southwest Region Breakdown: 2011 March Madness Picks

#1 Kansas Jayhawks: Revenge has officially be accomplished. That “revenge” word was used for the whole Big XII Tournament by Head Coach Bill Self, as he has a team that didn’t want to do anything but beat the Texas Longhorns after losing to them on its home court to stop the country’s longest home winning streak. This team looks just like the one that was in the NCAA Tournament last year as the favorites to win it all. Here we go again with “revenge,” though. Think that there isn’t some level of revenge that wants to be had on the NCAA Tournament after getting knocked out in the second round last year? The Big XII champs are certainly a viable team in the dance.

#2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Notre Dame probably fell just two wins short of a No. 1 seed in the dance, but they probably still have the best shot of any Big East team at actually winning the whole enchilada. The Irish have some great clutch shooters in Tim Abromaitis and Ben Hansbrough, and if others like Scott Martin, Tyrone Nash, and Carleton Scott can step up, all the better. Head Coach Mike Bray’s team is built a lot differently now than it was before, and this might be the formula to NCAA Tournament success this season.

#3 Purdue Boilermakers: The Boilermakers bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament prematurely, but it was a weird, weird tournament to try to handicap at Conseco Fieldhouse. This team would’ve been Final Four material for sure with Robbie Hummel in the mix, but even without him, E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson both have the ability to get the job done anyway. However, if the rest of the team goes MIA, as it has a tendency to do at times, Head Coach Matt Painter knows that his team is going to be in a world of trouble. Purdue could definitely be sneaky, though.

#4 Louisville Cardinals: The runners up in the Big East Tournament were rewarded for their hard work, and they now have a great shot at making some tremendous noise in the dance. Without Rakeem Buckles, things might be difficult, but if Louisville figured out how to tame two teams in the Big East Tournament, it has a great shot of being able to do it against teams that probably aren’t going to be nearly as tough. Terrence Jennings is one of the most underappreciated players in the country, and he should be one worth watching this week.

#5 Vanderbilt Commodores: It had to be a bit concerning to Commodores fans to see John Jenkins sitting out of their first game in the SEC Tournament against the LSU Tigers. It had to be even more concerning to watch him struggle all game long against the Florida Gators on Saturday. Still, Jenkins is a piece to a very talented puzzle in Nashville, and Vandy really can go a long way. However, it has a lot of unfinished business to tend to with a bad history in this tournament. Keep an eye on the big man in the middle, as Festus Ezeli could be a breakout player to watch.

#6 Georgetown Hoyas: The Hoyas are one of the many teams in this tournament that are struggling right now. They were beaten down in their first game of the Big East Tournament by the eventual champs, the Connecticut Huskies, but they just haven’t played a truly great game in quite some time. Austin Freeman can catch fire at any time, and the bigs in the middle can all put up some big games. This is one of the most well rounded teams in the country. However, it’s anyone’s guess how long Chris Wright will be out for, and if he misses this tournament, G’Town could be in a lot of trouble.

#7 Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have lost three times in their last five games, but it’s hard to blame them for losing to the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks on the road and to the Texas Longhorns at the Sprint Center. A&M is based on defense, averaging just 61.0 points per game allowed. Don’t kid yourself about the offensive firepower of this team, though. Khris Middleton, David Loubeau, BJ Holmes, and Nathan Walkup are capable of some big things. This is a team that flew under the radar all season long, and it could be a sneaky, sneaky squad in this region.

#8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels: Head Coach Lon Kruger has a team that is more or less just that “other team” in the MWC. Tre’Von Willis was a potential star last year as a junior for the Rebs, and though is numbers did drop off just a bit this season, he is still definitely a capable man. The Mountain West really didn’t challenge UNLV all that much, save for the teams at the top that it went a combined 0-5 against this season, and that should make this team a bit of a question mark going into the NCAA Tournament.

#9 Illinois Fighting Illini: The Fighting Illini are going to be up against it trying to get out of the first bracket of the dance, but Demetri McCamey and company really do have the skill to beat any team in the nation. Head Coach Bruce Weber has to be happy just to be here, or he would’ve been in a heck of a lot of trouble in Champagne. Mike Tisdale and the bigs on the inside are key as well, as this team really should have a big time rebounding edge in this first game against UNLV. Mike Davis is definitely one to watch to boot.

#10 Florida State Seminoles: Chris Singleton was supposed to be back in the fold for the Noles in the ACC Tournament, but Head Coach Leonard Hamilton decided to hold him out for another week to get ready for the dance. The bad news is that this team really did sort of slip a bit coming into the NCAA Tournament, and the Selection Committee punished the Seminoles for it. However, with a defense that is averaging just 62.3 points per game allowed, as well as having the best shooting percentage against in the land (36.4 percent), the garnet and gold are certainly going to have the abilities to pull off some upsets in the dance even though there isn’t a great history in March Madness.

#11A Southern California Trojans: When push really came to shove, the Trojans probably made their way into the field of 68 once and for all when they knocked off the Cal Golden Bears in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament. Head Coach Kevin O’Neill is back with the team after his tirade, but he has a great team, starting with Nikola Vucevic, a man who can come up with a double-double on any given game. So far, he’s averaging 17.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and he can do significantly more depending on the matchup that he has on the inside.

#11B Virginia Commonwealth Rams: Talk about a team that is a huge question mark… VCU really doesn’t deserve to be here in all likelihood, but the CAA really was a tremendous league this season and could really argue to be a legitimate three bid league. Jamie Skeen is good for 15.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, and he is going ot be a great match to watch on the inside against USC. Virginia Commonwealth has an offense that can produce points in bunches, scoring 71.5 points per game. However, this ‘O’ has only gotten into the 70s once since February 9th and has to be careful.

#12 Richmond Spiders: Winning the A-10 might have ultimately been the only way into the NCAA Tournament for the Spiders. However, they’re always going to be questioned about that schedule this season, which was paper thin. If you like great defense, you’re going to love this team, which will be able to shut down anyone that it runs up against. Justin Harper was good for almost 18 points per game this season, and he is the reason that, in spite of that relatively soft schedule, the team won a league high 27 games this season.

#13 Morehead State Eagles: The Eagles got a real assist from the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles, as the latter knocked off the No. 1 seed in the Ohio Valley, the Murray State Racers, the day before losing in the OVC finale to Morehead State. Still, this was a team that definitely deserved its place in the field of 68 this year. This won’t be a big time seed by any means, but there is one position in which Morehead will definitely be dominating in basically regardless of the first round matchup, and that is at center. Kenneth Faried is averaging 17.6 points and 14.5 rebounds per game this season, and he is the all time leading rebounder in NCAA basketball history.

#14 St. Peter’s Peacocks: And who said that covering the NCAA basketball lines on a regular basis didn’t finally pay dividends? There weren’t many college basketball expert handicappers that really thought that the Peacocks had a chance in the MAAC Tournament, but they got the job done, and in fine fashion to boot. Knocking off the Fairfield Stags was definitely an accomplishment, but taking down the Iona Gaels one night later in the finale was the true thing of beauty. Again, this is another one of these teams that prides itself on its ‘D’ few teams in the country hold foes to a worse shooting percentage than St. Peter’s does at 37.4 percent.

#15 Akron Zips: We know that the MAC has had a history of some big time upsets in the past, but the Zips just don’t have the potential to get the job done in all likelihood. There are a lot of scoring options, but none are the fantastic types of players that it takes to knock down the big shots in the clutch on a regular basis. Case in point: The team’s leading scorer, Nikola Cventinovic only had four points in the MAC Championship Game against the Kent State Golden Flashes. However, thanks to some great defense and some OT magic, Akron was able to get the job done, and it has earned its place into the NCAA Tournament.

#16 Boston U Terriers: Boston U really got a bit lucky all the way through the America East Tournament, as it really never had to play any of the toughest competitors that the league had to offer. However, it got the job done with a stifling defense and a mind blowing slow style of play. This is a team that can definitely impose its will on you, and if it does, games can get really, really ugly. The question out there is how this team is going to end up really scoring when push comes to shove. 65.2 points per game doesn’t scare us all that much. However, John Holland is a big guy to watch, as he is leading this team in scoring (19.2 points per game) and rebounds (5.9 boards per game), and he was the America East Player of the Year. He had 27 in the league finale against the Stony Brook Seawolves, and he’ll have to be huge for the Terriers to have any shot in the tourney.