Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks: NBA Free Pick

The Suns are really struggling this year, and if the success of Amare Stoudemire for the New York Knicks is any indication, we can easily identify why. Steve Nash is one of the best guards in the country still, even this late in his career, but it is clear that he needs some help to get this offense moving the way that Head Coach Alvin Gentry wants it to. Sure, averaging 109.0 points per game is tops in the NBA, but there is no worse team defensive than the Suns either. They’re allowing 110.0 points per game, and opposing teams are hitting 49.2 percent of their shots from the field, easily the worst mark in the league. There is no doubt that this is a team that legitimately can go ten players deep, as Gentry has no problem calling on anyone on his bench. Five men are averaging double digits in scoring, but though the team is averaging a relatively healthy 6.96 steals per game, there just aren’t any dominating presences either on the inside or on the outside to be able to stuff up great jump shooting teams.

Simply put, Dallas might really have the best team in the NBA. The problem that it has is if it is the second best team in the NBA… because then, it will have to come out of the No. 4 hole in the playoffs to make it to the NBA Finals. There’s bad news on the horizon for the Suns in this one, and that’s that the league’s worst defense is about to face the league’s second most efficient offense. The Mavs are shooting 48.0 percent as a team this year, largely thanks to the fact that the team’s top scorer, Dirk Nowitzki, is shooting a healthy 56.2 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from long range. The German national star is averaging 25.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, but he is getting a ton of help from his mates, especially in the front court. Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, and Tyson Chandler really do free things up for Nowitzki on a regular basis, but even when he fails, these three are combining for over 19 boards per night. They’re also chipping in for over 34 points per game to boot. Parlay that with the backcourt play of the phenomenal Jason Kidd and the sparkplug off the bench, Jason Terry, and the recipe is ripe for some darn good basketball in Big D.

We think the oddsmakers have put just a little too much weight on how good the Phoenix offense is in this one. The Mavs are good enough to beat any team in the NBA by double digits on a relatively consistent basis, but this one is a great matchup in particular. Quite simply, who is guarding Nowitzki? Robin Lopez is too slow. Hedo Turkoglu isn’t quick enough. Jason Richardson is too small. Dirk goes off for 30 and a double-double, and he leads the Mavericks to a double digit victory on Friday night.