NBA Weekend Betting Preview

Just how much is LeBron James’ right elbow bothering him? Bettors should get their answer when the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday at Quicken Loans Arena.

James was diagnosed with an elbow strain and bone bruise following the Cavaliers’ 96-94 win over the Chicago Bulls (+12.5) to close out their first round series in five games on Tuesday night, but questions remain regarding his health.

LeBron shot a free throw with his left hand in the dying seconds on Tuesday, making bettors wonder aloud if he’ll be at his best against the Celtics.

James finished with 19 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in Game 5 against the Bulls, but he often deferred on the offensive end to Antawn Jamison, who led Cleveland with 25 points.

LeBron’s injury isn’t dire enough to keep the Cavs from being favored against the Celtics, but it might have enough of an impact to make Boston a sharp underdog wager against the spread in Game 1.

That’s especially true given the way the Celts played in taking down the Miami Heat in five games in the first round. Much maligned for its increasingly lackluster play during the second half of the regular season, Boston looked sharp in dispatching Miami.

Ray Allen dropped 24 points in the Celtics’ 96-86 win in Game 5 of their first round set against the Heat on Tuesday night, as Boston covered as 7-point favorites at TD Garden. Paul Pierce went for 21 points, seven boards, and six assists for the Celts, who went 4-1 ATS against the Heat.

In addition to its recent success at the window, Boston is making inroads for ‘over’ bettors. Heading into Game 1 against the Cavaliers on Saturday, the Celtics are 10-4 O/U (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) in their last 14 games dating back to the regular season.

The teams have also cashed the ‘over’ regularly for totals bettors in recent head-to-head meetings. Boston and Cleveland have played ‘over’ the number in five of their last six matchups, during which they’re 3-3 SU and ATS.

The clubs split four games during the regular season both SU and ATS, with Boston winning the previous meeting, 117-113 at the Garden on April 4. Allen scored 33 points to lead the Celtics, who cashed as 1.5-point underdogs. James posted 42 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds for the Cavaliers.

Cleveland defeated Boston in the teams’ last battle at Quicken Loans Arena on March 14, when it won 104-93 as 7-point chalk. LeBron had 30 points, eight boards, and seven assists for the Cavs, who cashed despite making only 31 of their 48 free throws (64.6%) in the payday.

Over in the Western Conference this weekend, the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets tip off at EnergySolutions Arena in Game 6 of their first round series on Friday night. The Jazz lead the best-of-seven set 3-2, and would set up a date in the second round with either the Los Angeles Lakers or Oklahoma City Thunder with a victory.

Win or not, bettors are more concerned with Utah’s ability to cover the number on Friday night, and the trends are in its favor. 52-32-3 ATS on the season (including the playoffs), the Jazz are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 home games, while the Nuggets have covered in only one of their last 10 contests away from Pepsi Center.

Denver kept the series alive with a 116-102 win at home on Wednesday night. Carmelo Anthony finished with 26 points and 11 rebounds for the Nuggets (-7), while Chauncey Billups drained 21 points. The teams played ‘over’ the 216.5-point total for the eighth such result in their last 10 meetings.

Elsewhere in the West on Friday night, the Lakers and Thunder resume their series at the Ford Center with Los Angeles leading the set 3-2. The Lakers (-6.5) rolled past the Thunder 111-87 in Game 5 on Tuesday night at Staples Center in a game they led by as many as 32 points at one point.

Jumping back to the East, the Milwaukee Bucks look to finish off the Atlanta Hawks in Game 6 of their first round series at the Bradley Center on Friday night.

Game 7, if necessary, is set for Sunday afternoon at Philips Arena. Game 7 of the Jazz-Nuggets and Thunder-Lakers series, if needed, are also scheduled for Sunday.