Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Preview and Pick

NFL Football Betting Preview
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6)
Sunday January 10th, 1:00PM Eastern

Betus.com betting line – Patriots -3.5, 43 O/U

The New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens in the opening round of the playoffs this weekend from Foxboro Sunday afternoon. The game will be the only playoff meeting of the weekend that does not include a week 17 rematch. However, both of these two opponents did meet earlier in the season when the Patriots held off the Ravens for a 27-21 victory in week 4. The Patriots will be the slight favorites again this week, but they will be without one of their most useful targets in the passing game in wide receiver Wes Welker. Welker, who led the league with 123 catches, tore ACL ligaments in his knee in last week’s 34-27 loss to the Texans and is out for the rest of the year.

The Patriots dynamic passing attack fueled by both Randy Moss and Welker will definitely be less potent without their leading receiver on the field. Moss can definitely carry the team as he is exceptional player and racked up 1,264 yards this season. However, Welker was the utility receiver that caught a ton of passes on underneath routes that aggravated defenses therefore opening the door down field for Moss and others. QB Tom Brady who has been battling his own injuries must overcome the adversity.

Brady has been on somewhat of a tough stretch passing for over 200 yards just once in the last 4 games. In terms of yardage production, that is one of the worse 4 game stretches in his career. If those numbers stay down, the Patriots will have a tough time against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has a very strong defensive front allowing just 93 yards per game and if the Patriots are going to be successful they must move the football through the air. Keep an eye on tight end Ben Watson he may be used a lot more over the middle of the field in Welker’s absence as well. If Watson can make a few catches in the middle of the field, it perhaps could open up other options in the passing game as well.

The Ravens offense has really emerged as a legitimate rushing team behind running back Ray Rice. Rice rushed for 1,339 yards and 7 touchdowns this season while coming on strong during the 2nd half of the year. However, QB Joe Flacco can distribute passes for big plays to give the Ravens a balanced offensive attack as well. Flacco has thrown for 3,613 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Flacco attempted a season high 47 passes against the Patriots earlier this season. However, the reason for the high number of passes in the previous meeting was that the Ravens trailed the Patriots the entire game and were playing from behind. Flacco did complete 27 of those passes for 264 yards, but expect the running game to be a bigger focus this time around unless the Patriots jump out front early yet again. WR Derrick Mason has put up some big numbers this year and a big play or two would really help the Ravens cause especially if they can control the clock with Rice running the football.

Betting Trends –

Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in the last 7 games and has gone under the total in 7 of their last 10 games. The Ravens are also just 2-5 SU in their last 7 road games. New England is just 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games while going 14-6 SU in the last 20 games. The Patriots have also gone under the total in 5 of the last 6 games.

Pick – Ravens +3.5