AFC Wild Card – Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Pick
NFL Playoff Preview
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at San Diego (8-8)
Saturday, 8:00PM Eastern
Bookmaker.com betting line – Indianapolis -1, 51 O/U
The Indianapolis Colts closed out the season as the hottest team in the NFL winning their last 9 straight games. Indianapolis was completely written off after 3-4 start, but has rallied with a vengeance. The Colts travel across the nation to San Diego to battle with the Chargers Saturday night. San Diego is the first team since the 1985 Cleveland Browns to capture a playoff berth without a winning record. However, San Diego took advantage of a weak AFC West division and trampled the Broncos last week 52-21 to gain postseason life. This game features two hot teams that did not lose one game in the month of December and it will be interesting to see who continues on this path. The Colts beat the Chargers in a great game earlier this season 23-20 and this game looks to be another exciting match-up.
San Diego became the first team to ever overcome a 3-game deficit to win their division in the final 3 weeks of the season. The Chargers offense has came to life in the final weeks of the season. San Diego has averaged 37 points per game in their last 4 games. The Chargers bring a strong passing offense to the table which is rather different than San Diego teams of the past. The Chargers running back LaDainain Tomlinson has lead one of the best ground games over the past few seasons. However, this year the running game has not been near as good considering the offense has been transformed into a passing attack. Tomlinson has 1,110 yards on the season with 11 touchdowns. QB Phillip Rivers has been the major asset to the offense this season throwing for 4,009 yards and 34 touchdowns. This game has all the making to be a great quarterback showdown between two of the best in the NFL.
Peyton Manning has the Colts offense back in high gear after a sluggish start to the season averaging a 5th best 255 yards per game through the air. The big reason the Colts have achieved late season success lies in the play of the Indianapolis defense. The Colts defense has been spectacular in the latter part of the season. In their last 5 games, Indianapolis has only allowed 11 points per game including a shutout last week over the Tennessee Titans. The Colts defense will get a big test this week against a high octane offense from San Diego. The Chargers offense ranks as the 2nd best scoring offense in the NFL averaging 26 points per game. Indianapolis will try to keep the San Diego offense in check and allow the Colts offense to continue their stellar play.
What to watch for…
The Indianapolis secondary is ranked as a top 5 pass defense in the NFL this season holding opposing offenses to only 188 yards per game. San Diego will try to utilize the passing game against this strong secondary. The winner of this battle when the Chargers have the ball could have a huge impact on how the game is played out. Expect a lot of passes in this game and watch for Peyton Manning experience in big games to shine as well.
Betting Trends…
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while reaching the under in 4 of those 6 games as well. The Colts are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games on the road. San Diego is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games at home while reaching the under in 4 of their last 6 games. The Chargers are a strong 12-3 SU in their last 15 games at home.
Pick – The line in this game is a little too high. San Diego posted 52 last week against a bad defense. Indianapolis has a solid defense that should keep this one under 51.
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