NBA Betting Tips
I take pride in handicapping the NBA well and looking at all of the angles that will make you money over the long haul in this difficult sport. I am going to point out some of the things you need to know to make money in the NBA and some of the pitfalls to avoid so you can have success in betting on the sport and making money. In this article I am going to cover schedule soft spots, road trips, and taking a break during the long NBA season.
First, the NBA is a very long season and should be treated like the major league baseball season. You should not be an everyday player or very often without experience you will get burned out. Burnout causes different things to different players. Many players will find it difficult to handicap on a nightly basis and will find themselves making bad plays, following bad money management or both. To avoid this I suggest setting up a schedule to avoid burnout. Professional and college basketball combined can put stress on even the most experienced bettor. Make a plan and stick to it playing only a certain amount of days per week, and weeks per month and make sure you take advantage of light schedule days and the All-Star break to rejuvenate yourself and stay fresh.
Pay attention to the NBA in the off-season for player moves and personnel changes. For example, even though the season is over some big names have recently signed in the NBA. Kevin Garnett was traded to the Celtics, Howard commits long term to Orlando. These moves are fast and furious and you may lose track if you don’t keep an eye out.
Now let’s cover some angles that I have found to be very profitable when handicapping the NBA.
Stay away from road favorites in the NBA. In any given month there are a slew of games to choose from in the NBA. You want to stay away from road favorites whenever possible. That is not to say that road favorites do not cover, I just believe they have to be taken in stride and when taking them you must give them extra consideration.
Look for soft spots in the schedule. Earlier this year the Spurs traveled to Atlanta and the Spurs were installed as twelve point favorites. First of all they should have been avoided as a road favorite, however they were also in a soft spot in the schedule as they played at home the night before and the trip to Atlanta was a one game road trip. Needless to say they did not even come close to covering. The schedule is very important in the NBA and should be looked at every night very closely.
When speaking of schedule, one f the most profitable angles that NBA handicappers use is rested teams and playing against teams that have played four games in five nights. I do think this is an important angle to know but it does need some additional research before playing it blindly. For example most teams in the NBA when they go on a road trip are looking to just go .500 and often if they achieve that early in the trip, they will not care as much as the road trip nears its end. However sometimes if the road trip has started poorly they will try to win at the end of the trip to return home on a positive night. For example the Lakers just went on a road trip and in the middle they dismantled losing to teams like Charlotte, and New Orleans, followed by a trouncing by the Mavericks. Since they have not achieved the goal on the road trip they wanted to finish strong and did by upsetting the Rockets in Houston as seven point dogs, although they have played several nights leading up to that game.
The schedule is important but should be considered with other variables, such as injuries, televised games, and heavy public betting. In the next installment I will cover handicapping the NBA using public perception, line moves and more.