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9/20: Braves +155 - Info Plays - 1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Betting $100/game over the last 299 games in this situation, you would have profited $10,270. This season alone you would be up $1,240 in 23 games that have fallen under this system. Bet the Braves on the road.
9/14: Brewers +105 - Rob V. - On Tuesday the MLB Free play is on the Milwaukee Brewers. Game 959 at 8:05 eastern. Houston qualifies in a negative system here tonight that pertains to certain home favorites off a home favored win, if they scored 4 or less runs with 10 more hits and 10 or more men left on base if the total was 8 or less and the opponent tonight is off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. Home favorites in this role are several games under .500. The Brewers are a live dog here tonight. They average 5 runs per game in road games this year as well. On the mound they C. Capuano tonight. Capuano has been real good of late and has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings of work as he finally appears to be healthy from all the injuries. B. Norris of Houston has been disappointing this season with a 4.90 era. Over his last 3 starts he has a horrendous 6.06 era. Look for Milwaukee to get the win tonight. On the Tuesday late phone card I have the 6* MLB Second half total of the year form a 100% totals system that averages nearly 14 runs per game. I also have a secondary totals play in AL action that has cashed 14 of 16 times and has several high end power angles attached. Monday card swept MLB and NFL. Jump on and cash big tonight. For the free play take the Brewers. RV
9/7: WunderDog - Pick: Rangers - Scott Feldman can pitch, evidenced by his 17-8 mark from a year ago, but he had problems and the Rangers tried to use him out of the bullpen to straighten them out. After two consecutive scoreless outings they feel he is ready to take the ball once again. Shaun Marcum has pitched relatively well, but has really been subjected to the long ball recently, serving up nine in his last six starts. It could be fatigue as Marcum sat out last year with an injury, and his innings are already the highest in his big league career. The Rangers bring in a 19-7 mark behind Feldman on the road with a high total, posted from 9-10.5. The Jays are just 1-6 when Marcum starts after making a quality start in his last outing. I'll go with Texas here.
8/30: Bryan Leonard - It's not often we will look to go against the Yankees at home but this is one overrated squad we want no part of. Other than CC Sabathia the New York starting staff has been terrible all month. Now they are playing without their two big bats in the lineup as Texiera and Rodriguez are battling injuries.
The pitching edge is all Oakland as Trevor Cahill is having an outstanding season. He's produced seven straight quality starts allowing just six earned runs in those games. In his last three road starts the opposition has scored just one earned run against Cahill.
Dustin Mosely gets the start for the Yanks and the A's are well aware of the former Angel. In five career starts against Oakland he has permitted 16 earned runs in only 26.2 innings of work. The price is right as Oakland starts the series with a victory.
PLAY OAKLAND
8/28: SF/AZ ov 7.5 - Kyle Hunter - Barry Zito has been struggling of late, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have always given him trouble. The over is 3-0-1 in Zito's last four starts against Arizona. The over is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks last 5 road games. Daniel Hudson has been amazing for Arizona, but I think he is due for an off start. The Giants bats have been heating up in a big way over the last week or two. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last four home games. The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at 15 mph or more during the game. Given that both teams are hitting well, I think the over is a great value at 7.5 here.
8/27: Pick: WSOX - Rocky Atkinson - Chicago White Sox come in 3 1/2 games behind the Twins in the AL Central race. This is an important home series against the NY Yankees, who are tied with Tampa Bay with the best record in the Major League this year. NY Yankees are 11-24 last 3 years on the road when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Chicago White Sox are 26-9 the past 3 years and 7-2 this year as a home underdog of +100 to +125. The White Sox don't do bad at home scoring almost 5 runs per game this year. AJ Burnett is 9-11 with a 4.80 ERA overall this year, 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA on the road and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Freddy Garcia has a 10-5 overall record on the season and he is 5-3 at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
8/25:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS - Jim Feist -
Reason: Milwaukee is an excellent pitcher's park, which will help this Dodger offense. LA goes with one of their most reliable starters in Hiroki Kuroda (3.48 ERA), and he has been hot, with a 2.14 ERA his last three starts. Milwaukee has a losing record at home and starter Randy Wolf (4.67 ERA) is no stopper, with a 4.57 ERA at home and a .500 record. Play the LA Dodgers.
8/23: Matt Fargo - We used the Blue Jays in this spot last night and we will come back with them once again for a lot of the same reasons. Toronto lost two of three in Boston over the weekend to put up a disappointing 4-5 roadtrip. Like New York, the Blue Jays are a much better team at home than on the road and they showed it last night with a win in this opener. They continue to have good success against the Yankees this season, going 6-4 in the 10 meetings including 3-1 at home. The Yankees were coming off a very successful homestand where they went 5-2 and that is no surprise as they have been solid at home all season long. They are good on the road as well but not as good and their recent run is now 4-6 over their last 10 games after last night. Also, they have a 7-12 run in their last 19 road games against teams with a .500 or better record and that goes all the way back to May 10th showing that New York has had a very favorable road schedule over this stretch by playing a lot of losing teams. I thought Toronto has a solid edge on the mound last night and I think that is the case again tonight. The name Marc Rzepczynski is not going to put a scare into many teams and neither will his 4.76 ERA on the season but he has some solid stuff. Rzepczynski, who was expected to crack the starting rotation this season, injured the finger in his final Grapefruit League start against the Yankees on March 30 and was forced to start the season in AAA Las Vegas. He ended last season by tossing four straight quality outings and finished with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts so he has shown the ability to pitch well. He has a 2.77 ERA in his two nighttime starts with Toronto winning both games. Dustin Moseley counters for the Yankees and he has been up and down since his call up from the minors. Moseley had another rough outing against the Tigers in his last game as he allowed four runs on five hits and two walks in five innings. He gave up three home runs and has now allowed seven dingers in his last four starts and the Blue Jays are not the team to face if keeping the ball in the yard is a problem. Toronto has already roughed him up for five runs including two home runs earlier this month. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
8/18: SEATTLE MARINERS - Jim Fiest -
Reason: David Pauley picked up his first win this month and the kid has been very good overall, with a 3.31 ERA in 35 innings. He doesn't walk anyone and faces a terrible Baltimore offense, one that is second to last in the AL in runs. Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles is 2-3 against Seattle with a 4.50 ERA. The Mariners have better pitching, especially in the pen, as the Orioles are last in the AL in team ERA. Play the Mariners.
8/14 - Toronto Blue Jays +120 - Black Widow -
Getting the Toronto Blue Jays as an underdog in this match-up is an absolute steal Saturday. That's because Brett Cecil takes the mound, and he has been one of the most underrated starters in the league all year long. Cecil is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA this year, including 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Angels starter Ervin Santana has posted a 4.50 ERA in 12 home starts this year, and a 9.00 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Cecil did face the Angels earlier this season, pitching 7.2 shutout innings to get the win in a 6-0 victory at Los Angeles. Santana owns a 4.61 ERA in 8 career starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Cecil's last 6 starts vs. American League West. The Blue Jays are 10-3 in Cecil's last 13 road starts. The Angels are 1-5
8/6 - HOUSTON ASTROS Jim Fiest -
Reason: Milwaukee has a losing record at home and has been a big disappointment all season. This high strikeout offense faces a very good strikeout pitcher in Wandy Rodriguez (95 Ks in 122 innings). He's been on a roll, at 3-0 his last three starts with a 2.14 ERA, fanning 18 with 4 walks in 21 innings. I'm not backing Brewers starter Dave Bush in this home run happy park, with a 7.80 ERA his last three starts. He's 0-2 against Houston this season, allowing 28 base runners in 16 innings. Play the Astros.
8/5 - Bryan Leonard - The White Sox are playing much better ball than the fading Tigers, yet they are a sizable underdog on Thursday. Freddy Garcia has dominated Detroit the past few seasons as the White Sox are 14-3 when he takes the mound against Detroit. Chicago is 9-1 in his last 10 starts against Detroit while scoring 4 or more runs in every game. Matt Scherzer for Detroit hasn't had that kind of run support. In fact, Detroit has only scored more than 4 runs in his starts twice in the last 10 games. Overall the Tigers are struggling offensively producing just 31 total runs in their last 10 games.
Chicago is the better hitting club at the moment and Garcia has shown the ability to win against this Tiger squad. A solid underdog price adds to our enjoyment.
PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX
8/1 - Washington Nationals
+162 - Wunderdog - This line is out of whack. Sure, it seems impossible for the Nats to sweep the Phillies. But, is it really so crazy? The Phils are 7-20 on the road since the end of May. Cole Hamels surely has an advantage over John Lannan, but Hamels is just 3-5 on the road this season and he lasts only 5.8 innings per start. If this game is left up to the bullpens, Washington has a big advantage. Philadelphia's pen owns a 4.69 ERA and 58.8% save percentage on the road. At home, Washington's pen has posted a 3.08 ERA with a 68% save percentage. When facing a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or better) this season, Philadelphia is just 16-23. As a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season, Philly is 4-14. I like Washington at these juicy odds.
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