MLB Baseball Underdog Pick - May 2010 Archive

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5/27 - Pick: 3* Los Angeles Dodgers - Matt Fargo - We won with the Dodgers in this spot yesterday and we will go right back with them this afternoon. They dropped the opener of this series Tuesday as Ryan Dempster completely shut down the offense by tossing eight innings of shutout ball and ruining another solid performance from Clayton Kershaw. Last night Los Angeles held on for a three-run victory behind 5.1 solid innings from Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers were able to get to Tom Gorzelanny early and the advantage for them here is that they get to face another lefty today. The victory last night snapped a short two-game skid and after a slow start to the season, the Dodgers are 15-4 over their last 19 games so it is safe to say they are playing excellent baseball. The Cubs did manage five runs last night but they have scored more than five runs only once over their last 10 games and over the past 21 contests, they are averaging a mere 3.9 rpg. Los Angeles sends John Ely to the bump and after a rough debut where he allowed five runs, he has tossed four straight quality starts, allowing no more than two runs in any of those games while posting a solid 2.45 ERA over that span. This is his first ever start against the Cubs which is a huge advantage on his part. He goes up against Ted Lilly who has rebounded well from a tough start to the year after a stint on the disabled list to open the season. He has thrown three straight quality performances but the Cubs offense has not helped him as he has picked up no wins during this stretch as his run support has been only 2.3 rpg. He has made only two daytime starts and the results have not been good as he has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP covering 12 innings. The Cubs are just 12-26 dating back to last season against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620.

5/23 - Play On: Houston +105 (Oswalt/Narveson) Listed - Rocky Atkinson - Milwaukee is 5-14 this year when playing at home. Houston does have one small bright spot for the season as they have a winning record of 9-7 against division opponents. Milwaukee bullpen has been awful with a 6.01 ERA overall this year and a 6.92 ERA at home this season. Roy Oswalt has a 2.66 ERA overall this year, a 1.29 ERA on the road this season and a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Chris Narveson has a 5.17 ERA in all games this year and is 0-1 with a 5.90 ERA at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

5/19 - TOP PLAY - Take the Toronto Blue Jays ML, Vernon Croy - This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Blue Jays are the better overall team here tonight. Brett Cecil (2-2, 5.46) has pitched great early on this season despite his last two starts and the Blue Jays are 5-1 in his last 6 starts on the road. Seattle is just 0-6 in their last 6 home games as a favorite and they are just 1-5 in Doug Fister's (3-1, 1.72 ERA) last 6 starts as a favorite. The Blue Jays have the second best road record in MLB and Seattle is just 3-7 in their last 10 games against a lefty starter. The Mariners are also hitting just .228 as a team at home this season. I look for a solid start for Cecil tonight against a team that has not faced him before so grab the value with the Toronto Blue Jays as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.

5/17 -3* Pittsburgh Pirates - Matt Fargo - This may look like a mismatch on paper but there is a lot of value on the Pirates in my opinion. Pittsburgh nearly pulled off the sweep in Chicago over the weekend as it took two of three from the Cubs with a late inning loss on Sunday being the only setback. It was just the second road series win of the season for the Pirates who are a solid 5-4 in their last nine road games after starting the season 2-8 away from home. The Phillies have been playing excellent baseball as they are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This is why we are seeing suck ax big line but I think it is unjustified as the starting pitching does not warrant this sort of number. I am mainly referring to Kyle Kendrick who should not be a 2-1 favorite over any team. He has been extremely inconsistent this season as he has allowed no runs in two of his starts but has allowed four or more runs in his five other outings. He had an encouraging season a year ago although it was limited to just two starts and seven relief appearances and that definitely has not carried over. It has already been a tale of two seasons for Charlie Morton who was on the brink of losing his spot in the rotation. He was horrible in his first four starts as posted a dreadful 16.20 ERA in those games but he has rebounded with three straight quality starts. He is full of confidence now and in his lone start against the Phillies last season, he had a quality performance in a 3-2 Pirates win. Play on National League teams that are averaging 3.8 rpg or fewer and coming off a loss by two runs or less but going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse. This situation is 42-20 (67.7 percent) since 1997.

5/13 - 3* Detroit Tigers - Matt Fargo - The Yankees snapped their three-game skid with a win in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader behind yet another strong effort from Phil Hughes. New York hardly needed another strong arm in the rotation but Hughes has provided that in the fifth spot. The Tigers remain solid at home despite that late defeat as they are 11-4 at home on the season and remain three games behind Minnesota in the American League Central. Now the Yankees go with their ace C.C. Sabathia who has been strong again this season with just a couple lapses. Both of his non-quality efforts, which amount to just two in seven starts, both came in Boston against the Red Sox and I can see him struggling here against a potent Tigers lineup. Detroit has not hit lefties particularly well this season but it is a respectable 4-3 against southpaw starters. Sabathia has had more success at home this year and he has struggled in the past with the Tigers. In 28 career starts he has a very average 4.50 ERA and only three of his last seven starts against Detroit have been quality performances. He has a 5.89 ERA over those seven outings including an 8.25 ERA in two starts in Detroit. Detroit counters with its ace in Justin Verlander and he too has been up and down although it looks like he has fixed whatever ailed him early on in the season. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts with two of those being quality and the lone exception was a game where he allowed no runs but missed the quality tag by just a third of an inning. He faced the Yankees twice last season and both results were quality performances including the one game in Detroit where he allowed no runs in seven innings of work in a 4-2 Tigers win. Play on home teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125 with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 71-36 (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons.

5/10 - 3* Pittsburgh Pirates - Matt Fargo -Cincinnati hits the road after a successful 4-2 homestand to move to a game over .500 on the season but the road has not been as kind. The Reds are 4-7 in their last 11 games away from home and three of those losses already took place in Pittsburgh where they were swept back in mid-April. They are hitting only .228 on the road this year which is fifth worse in all of baseball. After sweeping the Cubs, the Pirates lost their series to the Cardinals two games to one but they have a good chance to bounce back Monday. The weekend series against St. Louis was a tough one as Pittsburgh had to face Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright who are a combined 12-3 with a 2.06 ERA so getting one game from that series should be considered an accomplishment. The Pirates now take a big step down in class as they face Bronson Arroyo who is off to a bad start this season. He started the year with a quality start against the Cardinals but he has only one quality performance over his last five games as his ERA has ballooned to 6.14. He has been up and down against the Pirates over the years and already in one start against them this season, he allowed five runs in six innings in a 5-3 loss. The Pirates counter with Russ Ohlendorf who is making his first start since coming off the disabled list due to back spasms. He reported no problems in a four-inning rehab start at Altoona on Wednesday where he tossed four shutout innings against Richmond. Ohlendorf was very solid last season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 29 starts and that included a quality start against the Reds in his lone start against them. The Reds are 17-37 in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Pirates are 12-4 in Ohlendorfâ€™s last 16 home starts.

5/6 - 3* Kansas City Royals - Matt Fargo After winning with the Royals two night's ago as big underdogs with the paid play, we dropped the small play last night against the White Sox but that is no reason to jump off quite yet. The Royals actually outhit Chicago last night 12-9 but they were unable to come through with the clutch hit while the White Sox were able to do so. Kansas City now heads to Texas tonight a very respectable 7-8 on the road this season and even though they are 11-16 overall, they have dropped less than a unit thanks to some solid prices and tonight is no exception. After four straight wins to begin their most recent roadtrip, the Rangers dropped the final two games in Oakland to drop back to .500 on the season. Texas is just a game over .500 at home this season so there has not been a big edge in playing in Arlington so far on the year. The Royals send Kyle Davies to the hill and he is off to a very good start. Through his first five outings he is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with the royals going 4-1 in those games including victories over Tampa Bay, Detroit and Boston. Three of his four games have been quality performances and despite being winless in his career against Texas, he has a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts against the Rangers. Matt Harrison has gotten off to an uneven start for the Rangers as three of his five outings have been quality performances but he allowed six runs in each of the other two games. Texas is just 1-4 in his five starts and in his lone game against the Royals last year, he was pounded for six runs on eight hits and four walks in just five innings. The Royals are 12-3 in Daviesâ€™ last 15 starts against teams averaging fewer than 4.7 rpg while the Rangers are 1-7 in Harrisonâ€™s last eight starts following up a quality outing in his last game.

5/5 - 3* Kansas City Royals - Matt Fargo We won with the Royals on last nights paid play and we will come back with them again tonight for a smaller play. After last nigh's victory they are very respectable 7-7 on the road this season and even though they are 11-15 overall, they have won money oval thanks to some very big prices and tonight is no exception. Luke Hochevar pitched a great game last night and I expect another big performance from Brian Bannister tonight. Through five starts, he has a 3.48 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with four of those games being quality efforts. Take away the one bad game where he allowed six runs in 5.1 innings against Toronto and his ERA drops to 2.10 in those other four games. Most impressive is the fact those four games came against the Tigers (twice), Twins and Rays, all extremely potent offenses and tonight he faces a White Sox offense hitting .227 on the season which is worst in all of baseball. He squares off against Freddy Garcia who is winless on the season through four starts. Two of his four outings have been quality performances with both of those coming at home so he is definitely pitching better at U.S. Cellular Field but that is negated with his track record against the Royals which is surprisingly bad. He is 8-13 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a .317 average in 25 career starts against Kansas City. Since 2006 it is even worse as in six starts he is 0-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP covering 32.2 innings. Play against American League favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 that has a bullpen whose WHIP is between 1.35 and 1.45 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season. This situation is 38-18 (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. That is a great percentage and in reality it is better since it is an underdog situation that has netting +33 Units in those 56 games.

5/4 - 3* Detroit Tigers by Matt Fargo - LOSS
Detroit had its five-game winning streak snapped last night in Minnesota but I think this is a very good spot to bounce back. The Twins have been extremely solid at home in their new Target Field, going 7-3 but tonight does not have them in a great situation. Dontrelle Willis gets the ball for the Tigers and he has gotten off to a great start. Through four starts, he has a 3.75 ERA with Detroit going 3-1 in those games. His WHIP of 1.54 is not very good but that was mainly due to the first two games where he posted a 1.91 WHIP. Over the last two starts, the ratio is a terrific 1.00. His last outing came against the Twins and he shut them out for six innings and he will use that confidence going forward. Minnesota was without both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in that first game so that no doubt helped but Mauer is listed as doubtful again tonight. While his start has been great, the start for Nick Blackburn has been anything but. He has a 6.85 ERA and 1.73 WHIP through four starts and he has allowed five runs in each of his last three outings. He missed his last start due to an undisclosed family issue and left the team for a few days so how he comes back remains in question. The Tigers fall into a solid partial contrarian situation as well. Play on teams after two straight games where they committed no errors going up against an opponent after three straight games where they had 12 or more hits. This situation is 48-22 (68.6 percent) over the last five seasons. The Twins are just 13-28 in their last 41 games against teams from the American League with an on base percentage of .345 or better while Detroit is 12-4 this season when its moneyline is between +125 and -125.