MLB Baseball Underdog Pick - July 2010 Archive

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7/22 - Pittsburgh Pirates - Matt Fargo - The Pirates bats have come alive of late and this is when we need to continue to ride them. Pittsburgh has scored nine runs or more in four of its last five games and to no surprise, it won all four of those games. The thing about it is that it came against some solid starting pitchers for the most part so I do not see a roadblock in the way tonight.

Milwaukee is now 3-4 on this current roadtrip to drop to 23-27 away from home and 10 games under .500 overall. The offense has been hit or miss but the recent pitching has been atrocious as the Brewers have allowed 11 runs or more in three of their last four games and the starting pitching ERA is a horrid 7.32 over the last 10 games.

The starting pitching matchup is controlling this number but it is too aggressive.

Ross Ohlendorf has pitched much better than what his 1-7 record indicates. He had tossed three straight quality starts before his last outing against Houston where he went just 1.1 innings, The good news is that he is rested as he tossed only 46 pitches. The Pirates are 0-6 in his six road starts but 4-4 in his eight home starts where he has been much more effective.

The Brewers go with one of their aces in Yovani Gallardo but I do not like the spot he is in. He is coming off the disabled list with a strained left oblique and while rest is helpful in most cases, Iâ€™m not so sure here with that type of injury. Despite a 2.58 ERA this season, Milwaukee is only 9-9 in his 18 starts including 4-5 on the road where his ERA is 2.31 but he ahas a WHIP of 1.38 which is pretty average.

Pittsburgh is 23-18 over the last over the last two years as a home underdog between +125 and +175 and that is a very solid record. Also, the Pirates are 7-2 in Ohlendorfâ€™s last nine starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Meanwhile the Brewers are 2-7 in their last nine games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates

7/21 - San Francisco Giants - Matt Fargo - We cashed a ticket with the Giants last night and we can thank Don Mattingly for that one. He made a costly managerial mistake by making two trips to the mound, the second which came right after the first as he never made it back to the dugout, which forced closer Jonathan Broxton to exit in the ninth inning.

Nonetheless, it added to the Dodgers recent struggles and kept the Giants on their current roll. They are playing great as they have won the first two games of this series to go to 11-2 over their last 13 games so any loss of momentum that would have thought to have come from the All-Star break has not happened. The recent run has put the Giants into second place in the National League West, trailing the Padres by only three games.

The Dodgers have now lost six straight, tying a season high, and going back further they are only 13-21 over their last 34 games and they continue to lose ground in the division. They are now in fourth place and trail first place San Diego by six games.

San Francisco has gotten a great season thus far from Barry Zito and he is coming off one of his best stats of the season in his first outing after the break. He limited the Mets to no runs on two hits in eight innings while striking out 10 and walking only two.

He looks to keep that rolling against a Dodgers team he has had great success against in recent starts. He has tossed four straight quality performances against Los Angeles including two this season while posting a 2.45 ERA over that span. Overall, the giants are 12-7 in his 19 starts on the year.

Meanwhile Chad Billingsley was shelled yet again as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just four innings against the Cardinals last time out. That raised his ERA to 4.61 this season and he heads home where his ERA sits at 5.44 compared to 3.72 on the road.

His day/night splits are even worse as he has a 5.76 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 13 starts under the lights compared to a 1.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in four daytime starts.

The Dodgers are 3-9 over the last two years with Billingsley on the mound against teams with a winning record while going 3-10 at home as a favorite between -125 and -175. The Giants are 8-0 in their last eight games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 3* San Francisco Giants

7/6 - San Francisco +140 (Bumgarner/Wolf) Listed - Rocky Atkinson - Francisco is now 42-40 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 37-46 overall record on the season. Milwaukee is 2-7 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. San Francisco has won 2 of their last 3 while Milwaukee has lost 3 of their last 4 games overall. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.25 ERA in all games this year. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.35 ERA overall this year and a 5.62 ERA at home this season. Randy Wolf is 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

6/10- San Diego +110 (Garland/Niese) Listed- Game 2 Rocky Atkinson - San Diego is 9-2 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. San Diego is 18-9 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. San Diego bullpen has a 2.70 ERA overall this year and a 2.92 ERA on the road this season. Jon Garland is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA in all games this year and 6-3 with a 3.04 ERA in all starts this season. Jon Niese has a 6.08 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 12-6 overall vs NY Mets the past 3 years. Garland is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA overall vs NY Mets since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

6/2 - SAN DIEGO PADRES +110 - Jim Feist - Reason: First place San Diego has a winning record both home and away, while the up and down Mets are 3,000 miles from home. They looked tired Monday in an 18-6 loss in this park! That was their third loss in four games to start this trip. While the Padres are strong at home, the Mets are terrible on the road. San Diego righty Clayton Richard (3.00 ERA) is very good, with the team 3-1 his last four starts. Opponents hit just .224 off him at home. Play the Padres.

6/1 ATL -1.5 (+162): - Craig Trapp - Two teams headed in opposite directions. In fact ATL has now moved ahead of PHILLY and are trying to improve on 6 game winning streak. Even in the perfect game by Halladay we saw this PHI team really struggle at plate. PHI has lost 7 of last 10 and the offense has been the main culprit in this slide. With out JRole at the top of the order PHI really has struggled. Hudson will be the starter on the moung for ATL as he tries to continue his great 5-1 start with a sub 2.5 ERA. His last three starts he has been amazing going 20 innings only allowing 3 ER! Hammels goes for PHI and even though he has pitched well he has not been getting many wins due to offensive struggles. Look for ATL to stay hot as the bats of PHI are still in the cooler!