Free Expert MLB Baseball Picks Archive 07/10

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7/31 - New York Mets -134 Jimmy Boyd - The D-backs have had New York's number, but we're talking about a team that is just 14-36 on the road this season. We're also talking about a team that has struggled against southpaw starters. The D-backs are just 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and they have never seen Takahashi. I also like the fact that the Diamondbacks are only 4-12 in their last 16 games following a win. The Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Look for them to finally take care of Arizona tonight.

7/22 - 1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -149 - Jimmy Boyd -
I'll take the Yankees on the run line at home tonight with Sabathia on the hill. The Yanks have won his last 9 starts, and 7 of those have come by 2 or more runs. Plus, Sabathia is 14-0 on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and the Yankees are winning in this situation by an average score of 7.9 to 2.1. In addition, the Royals are only 5-25 in their last 30 meetings with the Yankees in New York. The Yankees have the edge on the hill and at the plate tonight. Take New York on the run line.

7/21 - St. Louis Cardinals -138 - Dave Price - The Keys: The Cards have won 7 straight while the Phillies have dropped 5 of 6. With this in mind, we're actually getting a pretty good price with St. Louis, especially when you consider that Blanton is carrying an ERA of 7.06 on the road this season. Compare that to Garcia's 1.49 home ERA. Take the Red Birds here.

7/16 - WunderDog - The Houston Astros have struggled on the road and when Bud Norris takes the mound, they have been outscored by over 2 runs a game in all of his starts, posting just two wins in his eight starts for the season. Ross Olendorf has just one win on the season, but the numbers are deceptive as he has pitched to a fairly decent 4.22 ERA - certainly more deserving of a single win. The Pirates are scoring 2 runs per game in his 13 starts, and sooner or later those numbers even out. The Astros sport just a 21-53 mark in their last 74 posted as a road dog, and just 16-44 on the road vs. a right-hand pitcher. I'll go with Pittsburgh in this one.

7/6- Houston Astros -145 - Dave Price - The Keys: The Astros are a perfect 5-0 in Rodriguez's last 5 home starts vs. the Pirates, and this really shouldn't come as much of a surprise when you consider that the Bucs are only 13-40 in their last 53 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Pirates are 17-61 in their last 78 road games and just 23-58 in their last 81 meetings in Houston. Take the Astros at home tonight.

6/10 - Washington Nationals -160 - Bryan Leonard - The Pirates haven't fared well after blowing a lead and losing their previous game. In that situation they are just 91-168 since 2004. They also don't fare well off a loss when playing in the last game of a series with a 58-127 record. Pittsburgh has won just 20% of Zach Duke's road starts as of late with a 12-48 road record. In his last two starts overall the veteran lefty has been pounded for 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings of work. His lifetime ERA of 5.11 against Washington also doesn't bode well. Say what you want about Livan Hernandez but he seems to have found the fountain of youth this season. We keep waiting for the bottom to fall out of his game but it just hasn't happened. With a 2.22 ERA on the season and a 3.21 ERA in his last seven starts he's now making us a believer. In a league wide trend a home favorite of 140 or more is 73-32 when facing a squad that has lost three or more straight games. With Pittsburgh now 9-21 on the road this season we continue to look to play against the Pirates

6/7 - Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +117 - Jimmy Boyd - With the way LeBlanc has been shelled lately, I like the Phillies on the run line here. LeBlanc is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00 over his last 3 starts, and the Padres have lost each of those 3 starts by at least 2 runs. Hamels has been terrific at home, going 3-1 (4-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.94, and each of his last 2 home wins have come by at least 2 runs. It is also important to note that plays against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, if they are a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, are 70-17 the last 5 seasons. Teams falling into this situation are losing by an average of 2.8 runs per game. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 8 against the Padres and I expect this dominance to continue with a win on the run line this evening.

6/2 - New York Mets -120 Jimmy Boyd - After a game 1 loss, the Mets bounced back to take game 2. Now, they are in an excellent position to win this series with ace Johan Santana taking the mound. Santana has been incredible of late, posting an ERA of just 1.19 and a WHIP of only 0.926 over his last 3 starts. It is also worth noting that the Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts vs. the National League West and the Padres are 18-40 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. All Santana's going to need is a little bit of run support tonight, and I expect him to get it considering how well the Mets have hit southpaw starters. The Mets are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off of lefty starters this season. In fact, the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Richard has been solid for the Padres, but they have lost 5 of his last 7 game 3 starts. I'll back the better starter at a solid price tonight.

6/1 -3* Minnesota Twins - Matt Fargo - This is a great price for the Twins who have now won five straight games including the series opener last night. Minnesota is now 31-20 on the season including two games over .500 on the road and the win last night got the roadtrip off to a better start than the last one where it went 2-5 against the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox. The disappointing season for the Mariners continues as they have lost three straight games following a decent 5-2 run and any sort of hope for a turn around has vanished once again. The offense has been the main cause for concern as the pitching has kept the team from being even worse off. One of those contributors has been Jason Vargas who has gotten off to a surprisingly good start. I say surprisingly because he posted a 4.91 ERA in 14 starts and nine relief appearances last season after not even pitching in the Majors in 2008. He has a 3.12 ERA through nine starts but Seattle is just 5-4 in those games due to the run support issue. After a very slow start to the season, Nick Blackburn is back to where he needs to be and that is pitching exceptional. He has tossed five straight quality starts all of which have been Minnesota wins and the Twins have won nine of his 10 outings on the season. Three of his four career starts against Seattle have been quality outings including both at Safeco Field where his ERA is 2.77 covering 13 innings. The Twins are 7-0 in Blackburnâ€™s last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Mariners are 0-7 in Vargasâ€™ last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.

5/27 - 1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +101 - Jimmy Boyd - Hudson and the Braves get the call as my free play tonight. Hudson is in the zone. He is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA this season and 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA on the road. And he's been even better lately. Hudson is 3-0 with an ERA of just 0.82 over his last 3 starts with the Braves winning those games by scores of 7-0, 13-1 and 11-3. Also, Hudson has owned the Marlins in his career, going 8-2 (11-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.92. Nolasco is talented pitcher, but he has not had it going early on, especially at home where he is 1-2 (1-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.14. He's just 3-4 (4-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.57 in his career against the Braves. We'll bet the Braves with the edge on the hill tonight.

5/23- 1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -108 David Price - The Keys: Billingsley has been dealing for the Dodgers, but I'm going to side with the red hot Cubs who took Game 1 and have now won 7 of their last 9. The Dodgers have not been a very good road club this season and they have especially struggled against lefty starters. In fact, they are hitting only .250 against them and scoring just 3.6 runs per game off of them this season. This is why I'm giving the edge to Gorzelanny who has a solid 3.09 ERA on the season. Plus, Billingsley is just 1-4 lifetime on the money line against the Cubs. May has been Chicago's month as the Cubs are now 33-12 in home May games over the last 3 seasons. Take Chicago.

5/22- 1 Unit on Texas Rangers -152 Jimmy Boyd - Wells is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts and his struggles figure to continue this evening against a Rangers club that is hitting .296 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season. The Rangers send their southpaw Holland to the hill and he figures to have an excellent opportunity to build on his 2-0 start (2.38 ERA) as the Cubs are hitting just .265 and scoring only 3.8 runs per game against lefty starters. The Cubs have really struggled in interleague play. In fact, they are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record as well. The Rangers are 6-1 in Holland's last 7 starts as a home favorite and they have taken 5 of their last 6 from the Cubs. In addition, they are now 18-5 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take Texas.

5/19 - Play On: Cleveland -135 (Meche/Masterson) Listed - Rocky Atkinson - Cleveland is 7-2 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 8-14 on the road this season. Kansas City is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 4.2 runs per game on the road and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Gil Meche is 0-4 with a 7.17 ERA overall this year, 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road and 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA his last 3 starts. Meche is 5-9 overall vs Cleveland since 1997. Masterson has a 2.95 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

5/17 - 1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -130 - Jimmy Boyd - I'll back the O's behind Bradley Bergesen tonight. Bergesen has been electric over his last 3 starts, going 3-0 with an ERA of 2.33, and two of those wins came against Boston and Minnesota. It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 11-4 in Bergesen's last 15 home starts, 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a home favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is struggling for the Royals. He's posted a 7.15 ERA in 4 road starts and his ERA is an even higher 7.80 over his last 3 starts. Davies also carries a 7.94 ERA in 3 career starts against the O's. It is also worth noting that the Royals are just 1-5 in Davies' last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Royals are just 19-48 in the last 67 meetings in this matchup, including 4-11 in their last 15 meetings in Baltimore. Bet the O's.

5/14 - Chicago White Sox -130 (Buehrle/Meche) Listed - Rocky Atkinson - Kansas City is 15-41 the past 3 years when playing on Friday. Kansas City is 2-9 this year after a win. Kansas City is 193-301 since 1997 at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Kansas City has lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. White Sox bullpen has a 3.29 ERA on the road this year. Kansas City is scoring only 3.7 runs per game at home this year. Kansas City bullpen has a 5.19 ERA overall this year and a 6.75 ERA at home this season. Gil Meche is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA overall this year, 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. Buehrle is 20-9 with a 3.57 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago White Sox tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

5/11- 1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -109 - Jimmy Boyd - Wells is coming off his worst outing of the season, and I expect him to bounce back strong tonight against the Marlins. Here's what he had to say about his last performance. "It's terrible, unacceptable," Wells said. "I came in too cocky, too confident ... When we needed a win the most to stop the bleeding, I got lackadaisical, wasn't on top of my game." This guy is a competitor, not the type that will take this start for granted. Plus, Florida will be at a disadvantage having never seen Wells before. The Cubs are 9-3 in Wells' last 12 starts as a home favorite and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The Marlins may have won the first game of this series, but on the season they are only scoring 3.8 runs per game on the road while hitting just .243. Meanwhile, the Cubs are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home while hitting .295. Look for Chicago to get back in the win column behind a gem by Wells.

5/10 - 1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -113 - David Price After getting swept by Pittsburgh last month, the Reds will be extremely motivated to return the favor. Plus, even with that sweep, the Reds are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. Arroyo has been solid against the Pirates in his career with an ERA of 3.57 and the Reds are 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. the National League Central. The Reds are also 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 25-6 in their last 31 games overall vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 17-36 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record and 39-81 in their last 120 vs. the National League Central. Take the Reds.

5/9 - 1 Unit on Minnesota Twins - David Price - I'll back the Twins behind Blacknurn today. The Twins are 8-2 in Blackburn's last 10 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Twins are 81-36 in their last 117 games as a home favorite while the Orioles are 15-41 in their last 56 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has been some of the best fade material in the majors this season and we'll fade away again Sunday. Take the Twins.

5/5 - Play On: Texas -130 (Lewis/Cahill) Listed - By Rocky Atkinson - Texas is 42-20 the past 3 years when playing in May. Texas bullpen has a 3.44 ERA overall this year and a 2.38 ERA on the road this season. Colby Lewis is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA overall this year, 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 3.10 ERA his last 3 starts. Trevor Cahill is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA overall this season. Lewis is 2-0 overall vs Oakland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Texas today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

5/4 - 1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -134 By Jimmy Boyd
The Mariners have lost 7 of 9 and I'll continue to fade as they continue to struggle at the plate. The Mariners were just swept by Texas. Their pitching was good in that series. In fact, their starters only allowed five runs. However, the M's only hit .180 and scored just 4 runs in this series. That's just not going to get it done against a Rays team averaging 6.9 runs and boasting a MLB-best 9-1 road mark. On top of that, it's hard to think the M's will get off the snide against James Shields, who is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA this season. Seattle is near the bottom of the AL with a .236 batting average and just 86 runs scored. The Mariners have a league-worst nine homers with none in their last six games. I give Shields the edge against their lineup tonight. Vargas has been good for Seattle, but I can't see backing him here when you consider that they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle won't have the fire power at the plate to compete tonight. Bet the Rays.